The next Civil War

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

I can't shake the feeling that people predicting a second USian civil war aren't all that different from people expecting the Russia/Ukraine conflict to turn into a nuclear holocaust.

Quite frankly, any civil unrest resulting from Trump winning the White House is likely to be on the scale of the protests after the murder of George Floyd. If that.

Boru

First, let me be clear that my concern about violence stems from a Trump defeat in November.  Second, I'm not predicting a civil war, I'm deeply concerned that serious violence may happen.  However, it is clear that the political divide in the US is growing deeper by the moment.

But I'm 100% hoping you are correct.  Ever since 2016 I've had to recalibrate my level of cynicism and lower my expectations with regard to politics.  I simply never expected things like Trump winning the White House, the Jan. 6th coup attempt, the numbers of Trump cultists who remain even today, the GOP blatantly turning into a White Christo-Fascist Movement.  Growing up during a period of relative political blandness must have instilled some reassurance that the USA would never tilt into authoritarian chaos, but the last 10 or so years of politics has definitely caused me to rethink that attitude.

There could very well be violence in the wake of a Trump defeat, I don’t think any sensible person could deny the possibility. But I think it’s important to keep in mind the likely scale of any possible violence. 

The last time Trump lost an election, his followers attacked the US Capitol. That attack was perpetrated by less than 2500 people, lasted less than five hours, did less than $3 million in property damage, resulted in (directly or indirectly) the deaths of just nine people, and ultimately failed to achieve its goal of overturning the election.

Shock value aside, in the annals of political violence, it was a doddle. I don’t imagine that the violence after Trump’s next loss will be any worse.

Boru