Russia and Ukraine

[Leonardo17]

Russia is definitely not winning (They didn’t really win anything since they started the war 3 years ago) but Ukrainians are still dying and their soldiers are really tired. So no matter what happens Putin is still a butcher and a person that has to be stopped.

   There are going to be some talks tomorrow. The UK has left the EUropean Union. France has a government crisis and there will be elections in Germany. But we will see if Europeans can create some sort of united front (with the leadership of Poland) against the US. It’s not that anything Trump said is really going to happen, but there might be a window of opportunity here with the US getting the parties to a cease fire, then European troops moving into Ukraine as peacekeepers (of course with US troops having their back from a distance in case things go ugly).

   But if I am reading this right Trump want to withdraw some 20,000 troops from Europe too.

   Also: Most NATO members will not spend 5% of their budget on their military. For most countries it will be more like 3/3,5 %. That’s still not bad and many see it as something that needed to happen.

   Also: Trump is trying to rebalance the trade deficit of the US. His supporters say that they are promoting a system with more balanced trade relations between different countries. That’s not all-bad either.

    So I am not expecting an Afghanistan-like disaster in Ukraine but things are still shifting and that doesn’t have to be all negative. The only reason why this might not work would be Putin himself. Putin clearly does not want peace. But will he settle to something he can sell to his propaganda machine as some sort of victory? – We simply don’t know.

    Another important issue is that Donald Trump has greater chances of handling this situation than Mr. Joe Biden or even Kamala Harris

United front against USA with Poland as it leader? Dog almighty Lenin rising from mausoleum and building communism is far more likely than US most obedient vassal ever leading "rebellion" against its master. Nothing more than letter from some US clown was needed for Poland to say that it will ignore ICJ verdict and pm is asking some billionaire for help in ruling in clownish copy of musk and trump.

Only chance trump have is chance to fellate putler as it does not look like like he will demand putler to get the fuck out of Ukraine.

- Today Zelensky said that there needed to be a European Armed Forces from now on.
+ Europeans do not disagree with Trump’s 5% of budget on military idea either. In fact I think there are now going to be steps toward more cohesion between the national armies of different European Nations.
Today’s World order dates back to WWII. With the cold war being over and the era of optimistic globalization after that being also over Americans are not entirely wrong when they say “Deal with your own issues here and let me focus more on Asia”.
 
The only issue (for now) about Trump that is really revolting me is his cancelation of US Aid.

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See: This is not about charity. You cannot just leave two third of the human race with one hope which is to leave their country and migrate to richer parts of the world. If there had been some sort of Marshall Plan for the third World since 40 year or so, most nations in the world could afford to cut their military spending in half by now.
 
There should be a Ministry of Peace in every developed nation whose duty would be to locate despair and hopeless situation in other countries and work on these problems before they culminate into authoritarian leaders like Vladimir Putin or mass migrations like in many South-American Nations.
 

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- Everyone is trying to make sense of D. Trump’s dance with Elon Musk and the likes of Elon Musk. Here again: Europe is very important for the US in this area because they are the ones who are successfully creating rules against these big tech companies becoming too powerful and undermining our shared democratic values.
 
So I’m mainly trying to remain optimistic here. We still have 4 years of D. Trump presidency ahead of us. So I’m just trying to elaborate some sort of road map on how we are going to go through these four years without losing our very sanity