Articles of Distraction

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

Democrats Have One Brutal Path to Survival if the Supreme Court Kills the Voting Rights Act

The impact of this decision would be devastating for Democrats in the South: Many left-leaning congressional districts in this region were drawn solely to comply with the VRA; once the law is dismantled, red states could eliminate these districts to create more safe GOP seats. Gov. Ron DeSantis, for instance, has already suggested that Florida will undertake “mid-decade redistricting” if the Supreme Court kneecaps the VRA and speculated that several other states will too. The new maps would ruthlessly dilute the votes of racial minorities to give white Republican voters control over more seats.

But there is a flip side: Red states aren’t the only ones with majority-minority districts; blue states have long drawn them as well, out of good-faith compliance with the VRA. Democratic legislatures typically create these districts to ensure that racial minorities have a fair shot at electing candidates of their choice. That approach prevents lawmakers from drawing more “efficient” gerrymanders—that is, maps that distribute voters in ways that maximally increase Democrats’ electoral advantage. For decades, the Democratic Party has accepted this trade-off: stronger representation for racial minorities, and a more diverse congressional delegation, at the cost of fewer House seats overall.

Without an operative VRA, though, blue states would have no obligation to maintain these majority-minority districts. In fact, they might have to redraw them: If Callais comes out as expected, these districts may now constitute an unlawful racial gerrymander, and voters could sue to invalidate them in court. Either way, by choice or by necessity, Democratic legislatures could then “unpack” their majority-minority districts. That means re-sorting racial minorities into whiter districts to more efficiently convert Democratic votes into House seats. The resulting maps would largely deny these populations the opportunity to elect their preferred representatives, since they would lack a majority in most (if not all) districts. This could seriously diminish minority representation in Congress. But these maps would also more effectively dilute Republican votes, ensuring that Democrats win more seats on balance.

As a US voter, would you accept that trade off - few minority Congresspersons for a (potential) Democratic majority?

Boru