Richard Carrier trashes Bart Ehrman's book on the Historical Jesus.

[Angrboda]

I'm not familiar with Carrier's Bayesian reasoning. But my initial reaction is that this seems like a very weak analogy. We have plenty of evidence of Carrier's existence: photographs, videos, birth certificates. You can even go meet the guy in person. It's not at all like that with Jesus. This use of Bayesian reasoning reminds me of Creationist's misuse of carbon dating (but perhaps I myself am making a weak analogy but I can't see how).

Just in passing, you also neglect that the prior probability of a Richard Carrier is many times higher than that of a god incarnate.