The Need to Breed

[Mister Agenda]

Middle-of-the-road UN projections have human population growth peaking by 2050, followed by a slow, centuries-long decline in population. Most developed countries are already at negative-replacement rates, European and US populations would be shrinking instead of growing without immigration. Large families aren't so attractive when having enough children survive to take care of you in old age is no longer your only retirement option and birth control is easily obtained.

By 2050 it may very well be too late. Also, declining growth, isn't a shrinking population. If the world only had 300 babies a day (which would be an unrealistic 96% drop in population growth) we'd still be growing. I don't think some of you people are getting it. We're already at capacity.

Also, if you're not willing to accept the projections of Global Warming scientists, than I'm far less inclined to take the projections of a few political analysts at the UN.

I did not state that it is not already too late.

We are currently already seeing a decline in growth, which I did not mention, but you seem to think I am confused about.

If the world only had 300 babies a day, given that about 156,000 people die every day, our population would collapse in a matter of decades and we would be near extinction in 75 years (because the death rate--not necessarily the absolute number--would increase as our population aged, about 3.5 billion people are currently 30 or over, the vast majority of those will be dead in fifty years). I suspect you meant to use a different number, but if birth rate were lowered to 30% of the current rate (to about 115,000 per day), it would be below the current death rate (about 156,000 per day) and our population would start to decline (in absolute terms, by about 40,000 per day).

After 2050, the projection is that population will begin to go down in absolute terms. Again, I'm not confused about declines in the rate of growth.

I said nothing about global warming projections. I don't see what my acceptance or non-acceptance of either projection has to do why you should or should not accept them. Perhaps you're 'on a roll' and not thinking things through? And the people who make the UN's population projections ARE scientists.

Maybe you should consider taking my posts, especially ones which are only sharing information, more literally. And law of charity says don't assume I'm an idiot who doesn't know what the terms I'm using mean without a good reason.

You usually do better work here, so I'm going to assume you're just a bit carried away and not take it personally.