RE: The Monty Hall problem.
September 24, 2009 at 2:40 pm
(This post was last modified: September 24, 2009 at 2:44 pm by Tiberius.)
They aren't though, because your chances of being on the correct door are much lower than you being on the correct door. I wrote a computer program that played the game. If you tell it to always switch, it wins 2/3 of the time. If you tell it to always stick, it wins 1/3 of the time.
If you know how to program you can see this in action. If you don't, I'm sure I could create a php webpage that played it for you
Update: Here is a good one: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/08/scienc....html?_r=1
So play the game, and do 10 rounds where you always switch. Then do 10 rounds where you always stick.
I got 60% wins with switching, 30% wins with sticking.
After 20 rounds each, 65% wins with switching, 35% wins with sticking.
After 30 rounds each, 63% wins with switching, only 27% wins with sticking.
After 40 rounds each, 65% wins with switching, 33% wins with sticking.
The pattern is emerging
If you know how to program you can see this in action. If you don't, I'm sure I could create a php webpage that played it for you
Update: Here is a good one: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/08/scienc....html?_r=1
So play the game, and do 10 rounds where you always switch. Then do 10 rounds where you always stick.
I got 60% wins with switching, 30% wins with sticking.
After 20 rounds each, 65% wins with switching, 35% wins with sticking.
After 30 rounds each, 63% wins with switching, only 27% wins with sticking.
After 40 rounds each, 65% wins with switching, 33% wins with sticking.
The pattern is emerging
