RE: Explain this bullshit
October 22, 2012 at 9:21 pm
(This post was last modified: October 22, 2012 at 9:26 pm by Anomalocaris.)
(October 22, 2012 at 9:06 pm)festive1 Wrote: From my limited knowledge of earthquakes, I believe small tremors in some instances precede a larger quake. However, this is not always the case. I think the jury is still out on whether or not earthquakes can be accurately predicted. Perhaps more research will lead to more accurate predictions?
The only earthquake prediction shown to have anything more trivial levels of correlation with reality occurred within 30 seconds before the main quake. It's just about enough to start texting the word "run" to everyone in the area.
There is a location in California that is to earthquake prediction what Mecca is to Muslims. Earthquakes there seem to go off like clockwork. Geologists think they have the fault repo sidle as well mapped and instrumented as any in the world. Seismologists were pretty confident they can give an good prediction here if they can give one anywhere. They predicted one. The evidence looked so good. It didn't come.
Oops.
No, earthquake prediction is not yet a science. Science of seismology have much further to go before it can spawn the science of earthquake forecast useful for actual diseaster warning.
