RE: Cell phones causing skewed polls?
October 26, 2012 at 7:34 pm
(This post was last modified: October 26, 2012 at 7:35 pm by Tino.)
Aroura,
The cell phone issue is well known within the polling industry. You might like to read this piece http://pollingmatters.gallup.com/2012/10...lving.html by Frank Newport, who runs the Gallup poll, considered by many to be among the best. It discusses how they've integrated cell phone polling. This paragraph is particularly relevant:
As we began this election tracking program on Oct.1, our methodologists also recommended modifying and updating several procedures. We increased the proportion of cell phones in our tracking to 50%, meaning that we now complete interviews with 50% cell phones and 50% landlines each night. This marks a shift from our Gallup Daily tracking, which has previously been 40% cell phones. This means that our weights to various phone targets in the sample can be smaller, given that the actual percentage of cell phones and cell-phone-only respondents in the sample is higher. We have instituted some slight changes in our weighting procedures, including a weight for the density of the population area in which the respondent lives. Although all Gallup surveys are weighted consistently to census targets on demographic parameters, we believe that these improvements provide a more consistent match with weight targets. The complete statement of survey methods is included at the end of each article we publish at Gallup.com.
The cell phone issue is well known within the polling industry. You might like to read this piece http://pollingmatters.gallup.com/2012/10...lving.html by Frank Newport, who runs the Gallup poll, considered by many to be among the best. It discusses how they've integrated cell phone polling. This paragraph is particularly relevant:
As we began this election tracking program on Oct.1, our methodologists also recommended modifying and updating several procedures. We increased the proportion of cell phones in our tracking to 50%, meaning that we now complete interviews with 50% cell phones and 50% landlines each night. This marks a shift from our Gallup Daily tracking, which has previously been 40% cell phones. This means that our weights to various phone targets in the sample can be smaller, given that the actual percentage of cell phones and cell-phone-only respondents in the sample is higher. We have instituted some slight changes in our weighting procedures, including a weight for the density of the population area in which the respondent lives. Although all Gallup surveys are weighted consistently to census targets on demographic parameters, we believe that these improvements provide a more consistent match with weight targets. The complete statement of survey methods is included at the end of each article we publish at Gallup.com.
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