The technological singularity - inevitable?

[Purple Rabbit]

You sound like some fundie theVOID. A pitty, we might have had some discussion. I suggest you smoke some more pot first to clear up the haze and anger.

If you say something that blatantly stupid you should be prepared for a harsh response.

Fundie? Haha, you sound like someone who doesn't have a scrap of good argument left in him, as evidenced by your lackluster response.

I see you deal a lot in ad hominem on AF, what about some arguments?

“By 2009, computers will disappear. Displays will be written directly onto our retinas by devices in our eyeglasses and contact lenses.” Ray Kurzweil

Don't know about you, but sitting here, end of 2009, behind my desktop, typing away with the old mechanical devices I have learned to appreciate as my fingers, it seems someone has been a little too enthousiastic about the future, again. So, Ray is behind schedule already with his disappearing computers.

And what's religious about this singularity idea? For some poorly understood reasons most religions require for a devine being. In this case, according to the singularity guys, the divine beings are we, we will become gods with extravagant if not omniscient and allmighty powers. Check! The universe will be at our feet and we will boldly go where no man has gone before. Don't hesitate because of the mind-boggling gaps of space between our sun and even the most proximate stars. There is Moore's law that will supply us not only with extra cheap memory in our head but also unlimited unlimited intelligence and yet unknown energy supplies and eternal means of transportation. Hell, we are in heaven then? Check! Since as a religion heaven is just what we needed to mesmerize our followers. Something to fight wars for. And oh, not totally unimportant, the promise of immortality. Check! What else? Let's see, a one-dimensional doctrine to gulp down the throats of ignoramuses. Well, that's being provided with verve by singularity entrepreneurs like Kurzweil. Next, not really necessary, but handy on the job, some convincing sounding prophets to do the marketing job and a church to preach in. Kurzweil cum suis and internet. Check! We're done. You're done. Your new religion is available on the internet right now. And you are buying into it big time.

Plotting development and extrapolating is not perfect but it is the single best method we have for making statements about potential events in the future, a far superior way of making statements, compared to your "lalala i know better all by myself" approach.

Well I''m not making far reaching predictions here. I am criticizing the jumping to conclusions that the singularity guys do. The best way to predict the future is using reason, not equating to sheer extrapolation of one specific trend. The singularity shit is just another pseudo science that tries to impress with sloppy reasoning that ignoramuses gulp down, like expanding Moore's law to the intelligence department when there really is very little advancement on artificial intelligence to incorporate in the statistics. Like presenting trends in in a double logaritmic view (see here for a more detailed explanation of this from a guy some of us here probably know fairly well from another confrontation between science and pseudo-crap). Like making extrapolations without any assessment on the underlying causes. The arguments you provide like 'gadgets are already helping us out' really are pathetic and make it hard not to laugh. With that you can speculate the singularity from stone age tools.

Can we predict the future? To a certain degree, sure. With the precision Kurzweil does, don't think so. One could argue that within the next thirty to fifty years there will be a huge job crisis on earth thanks to advances in technology. Can we ignore such a profound societal instability alltogether in the singularity scenario? That's when exponential speculation (aka bs) kicks in, not magical exponential technological advancements.

While in cognitive psychology there are camps on both sides of the line drawn by the possibility of artificial intelligence, the guys from the Singuylarity department are taking hundreds of pills a day to await nothing less than superintelligence in 2045. Not 2050 but 2045.

Well, I'm not arguing that artificial intelligence is impossible and I'm not arguing that enhancements of the body will have far reaching consequences. But I am arguing that we cannot know the nature of these changes (such as the sudden change predicted by Kurzweil) and their impact on society in advance. This is all speculation, as you already put it yourself "nobody is saying this is going to happen, or even that it is likely, but it is an interesting thing to contemplate".