(July 7, 2013 at 11:16 am)FallentoReason Wrote: Recently I've realised that it's not correct to counter someone's belief in god x by pointing to n number of historically possible gods and deducing that x/n is low. This is incorrect if, and only if, the believer has experiential justification for their belief.
This thought is exactly the same as if we were all playing poker and we were dealt 5 cards. Someone could look at their hand and say "I've got a royal flush!" and then someone could counter by saying "it's unlikely because the probability of that happening is 1/x". Well, the *fact* is that they have got a properly basic belief that they have a royal flush (i.e. their belief has come directly via the senses). Therefore, they are justified in believing they have a royal flush even if the odds are 1/(10^99).
This is where the believer is positioned. Whether their senses *actually* gave them a true encounter is another matter, but my point is (I guess) that saying the truth of their belief is statistically unlikely is meaningless to someone with a justified belief (of some degree), hence why the two parties just slip right past each other without really engaging in a proper discussion.
Eager to see what the atheist response would be to this...
The point of this counter is usually not to posit improbability as evidence against the belief but as justification for better scrutiny.
The use of poker analogy is flawed because it is possible to have more than one royal flushes in different games (or even in the same game), but, usually according to religious beliefs, it is not possible for more than one god or religion to be simultaneously true. The correct analogy would be if someone says "I've got a royal flush" and the reply is, "Really? Because the other five players are also saying that they have a royal flush". It does not prove that you don't have the royal flush, but it does show that atleast one player is lying or cheating or mistaken. While the chances of one person having a royal flush are low as it is, the chances of all of them having it are zero. So the least you could do is take a look at your cards once more.
