Determinism Is Self Defeating

[Zen Badger]

What is the test for determinism?

Making accurate predictions everytime.

Negative, whether or not a prediction is possible, if only in theory - as in, if we knew x and y precisely then we could predict z...which is pretty much how all of our predictions work (and they're very successful..even with regards to predicting human behavior and decision-making...see: marketing) is all that's required as evidence of deterministic behavior. We understand that we may lack the precision required to nail something down as accurately as we would like (which for many, including yourself obviously..would be nothing less than absolute and unerring certainty).

And not just predicting that a rock will roll to the bottom of a hill, but accurately predicting its path including every bounce and tumble.

So the rolling down the hill bit is okay -that's not surprising (is that deterministic behavior, in your estimation?) - but the other behaviors (the bounces and tumbles)........what (in what way are they different, for example)?

When you can do that, talk to me then.

It would be a sad day indeed the day we had that talk (I generally hope we never get -that- good at predicting things, or that it's just not possible for us to do so). I fear you may have mistakenly set the bar where it does not belong.

RE our chaotic and emergent universe....some of us aren't satisfied with assigning our ineptitude at measurement the status of "part of the fabric of cosmos". It's not such a strange thing. Your "free will" for example, is exactly what it was the moment before. It changes nothing in our experience, nothing whatsoever. OTOH, we could also wonder whther or not our descriptions of the universe where deterministic because that;s pretty much the way -we- experience things (but we wouldn;t want to wonder too hard..because then we have hard determinism and solipsism biting at our heels...gl out of that hole). In any case, we attempt to explain the unknown by way of the known.......so....when we see deterministic behavior all around us - unless we're giving out special passes for ourselves on unspoken grounds- it looks pretty bleak (or fantastic, I suppose, depending on where you're coming from).

The point that I'm making is that as a theory determinism can only be proven by making accurate predictions, the rock rolling down the hill for instance.
Until that time it can only be regarded as a hypothesis.

Or are we just going to toss the concept of scientific scrutiny out the window?