Quote:This is all well and good except for two points. First, as noted, some are able to assign probabilities to the question, and most atheist agnostics dismiss the idea of God as improbable. When you assign probabilities to any question, you are claiming knowledge, even if that knowledge is only partial and uncertain. If you have no knowledge of a binary question, the principle of insufficient reason states that you assign a 50/50 probability to the outcome; assigning other probabilities implies knowledge, no matter how fallible.
I think we have to differentiate "no knowledge" from insufficient knowledge and that it is the latter, rather than the former that would describe the case for an Agnostic Atheist.
A straightforward Agnostic may fall into the 50:50 split.
Further, when confronted with a specific theist the question is not binary - in the sense of God's existence as we have to incorporate "which God?"
Using your own logic, therefore, the question "is Jesus the Son of God" is a 50:50 call only when assuming that the option is Christianity or atheism.
Factor in the variety of different religions (not to mention different Churches) and the odds for a specific interpretation of God fall dramatically.
Deism would also have to be included as an option. A Deist God either exists or does not exist. If that's 50:50 what remains for a theist God?
If we are to summarize all of the above, therefore, taking Agnostic Atheist as the start point.
P(God) = 50:50
P(Deist God) = 50:50 = 1 in 4.
Assume P(Theist God) = P(Deist God)
Number of possible Gods = All of those worshipped on Earth + 1 (to incorporate the possibility of a theist God not yet worshipped). For ease lets use a number of 5,000 (from thin air).
Therefore P(specific theist God) = (1 in 4) * (1 in 5,000) = 1 in 20,000.
Hence the reasonable addition of the word Atheist to the title Agnostic Atheist.
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