(February 9, 2014 at 1:56 pm)FreeTony Wrote:(February 9, 2014 at 1:35 pm)Jacob(smooth) Wrote: Lucia de berk for one. I have a whole talk on that.
1 in 2
Bayeristic probability. Great fun.
Yeah, here's another one: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sally_Clark...l_evidence
Close, but the answer is actually 1/3 (you may have misread that the background rate was 0.5%, not 1%)
Best way to think about it without doing the maths is that if you tested 200 people, 1 of which is actually a drug taker, the most likely outcome would be:
2 false positives.
1 true positive.
Therefore 1/3 positives are true ones.
Ha! True enough I guess. I was thinking in terms of one True positive to two false, hence one in two. But on reflection I like your answer.
"Peace is a lie, there is only passion.
Through passion, I gain strength.
Through strength, I gain power.
Through power, I gain victory.
Through victory, my chains are broken."
Sith code
Through passion, I gain strength.
Through strength, I gain power.
Through power, I gain victory.
Through victory, my chains are broken."
Sith code
