RE: The Monty Hall problem
April 13, 2014 at 4:40 pm
(This post was last modified: April 13, 2014 at 4:51 pm by Coffee Jesus.)
I constructed a modified tree diagram.
![[Image: nelp.png]](https://images.weserv.nl/?url=imageshack.com%2Fa%2Fimg607%2F6596%2Fnelp.png)
Each square represents a 1/6 unit of probability.
The situation where I pick the right door is the only situation in which the host has a choice as to what door to open. Whichever he opens, he was more likely to open it if I picked wrong rather than right, which decreases the likelihood that I picked right. This decrease in probability cancels out the effect of the host eliminating a wrong door.
Each square represents a 1/6 unit of probability.
The situation where I pick the right door is the only situation in which the host has a choice as to what door to open. Whichever he opens, he was more likely to open it if I picked wrong rather than right, which decreases the likelihood that I picked right. This decrease in probability cancels out the effect of the host eliminating a wrong door.
