Who throws the dice for you?

[Heywood]

I would say the likelihood of our reality being dependent on a supernatural element is a little less than 50%.

I would say that the likelihood that you pulled that from your ass approaches unity.

Remember I am indifferent toward the veracity of premise 3. So I give it a 50% chance of being true. If I was virtually certain premise 1 and 2 were true. I would say the likelihood of our reality being dependent on a supernatural element is 50%. I am not completely certain premise 1 and 2 are true which put me less than 50%.

Premise 4 I just believe that if our reality is dependent on a supernatural element, there should exist some observations which cannot be explained by science. By "cannot" I mean virtually impossible and not "have yet to be" or as a consequence of a lack of understanding.