The fall of post invasion Iraq

[Thumpalumpacus]

I personally think this recent episode in Iraq, while embarrassing for us, is not only not dangerous to our core interests, it is not even really that dangerous to the regime we left behind in Iraq.

I personally think ISIS is a stupid mob with bazookas that has far overplayed its own hand. It won't need to be defeated by the feeble and cowardly Iraqi forces. It would collapse under the weight because as a jihadist organization it should not have attempt to control large territory or population while fighting established civil administrations. ISIS is trying to do just that. A jihadist organization derive its strength from popular discontent with civil administration. Once a jihadist organization starts to over reach and try to become a civil administration in control of large territory, it would need to feed the people, run the public services, etc, better then the administration it fought against. Otherwise popular discontent will simply transfer from the enemies of the jihadists to the jihadists themselves,many the jihadist movement will collapse. Jihadist organizations such as ISIS are hardly the type that would attract intellectuals, skilled technocrats, and other elements of society needed to out perform iraq's civil administration. ISIS will soon start to collapse in on itself even as it tries to make further advances upon the Iraqi administration.

I agree with much of what you've written, and hope you're right about the parts with which I take issue. In partuicular, your points about the uncertain transition from army to government which has done in many movements. It should be noted that while they may not be particularly competent at governance, ISIS does have a hell of a lot of money, and that can go a ways to make up for inexperience.

Additionally,I think a stable oil market is a pretty important interest not only to America but also to our most important trading partners, in the sense that energy prices redound throughout the world's economy, and we still haven't recovered from 08. We are very vulnerable; the Japanese are as well; the Chinese and Indians, less so, but still somewhat open to harm. The nascent recovery we have underway here in America would likely suffer a serious, if not fatal, blow, from a large spike in oil futures.

I still think it's better for us to stay clear of further ME entanglements, and let the Europeans and Chinese secure their oil themselves.