Cryptids

[Anomalocaris]

I don't rule out 'weird' germs, fungi, etc.

Read a quick report there is an 'electrically' powered microbe just been discovered. Funny people think they need to make up oddities when there are plenty of real ones waiting to be discovered.

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Agreed, except more advanced aliens in our galaxy - 90%

As to have aliens visited earth, as in ever, in only form, including dropping automated probes into atmosphere or coming into solar system with remote sensing probes, during any part of earth's 4.6 billion years, and not backwoods visitation or abduction after UFO scare of 1950s, I would say fairly high, 50%

I'm a big 'fan' of the Fermi Paradox. I find it extremely convincing. And the greater the number of 'advanced' lifeforms predicted in to exist in our galaxy, curiously, the stronger and more convincing the Fermi Paradox becomes.

Really. Think about it.

I consider Fermi paradox and interesting starting point of discussion, but by no means capable of being used to draw strong conclusions at all. Fermi paradox relies on three assumptions:

1. Intelligent civilizations are likely to endure for a length of time significant next to the overall age of the universe.

2. As intelligent civilizations endure, they are likely to create an broad and ever broader foot print of evidence and artifacts which we are able to readily detect and identify right now.

3. The frequency and distribution of enduring intelligent civilization in the region of galaxy around the earth is typical of that in the galaxy over all.

I personally think there is no way of estimating how long any technological civilization can endure. It may be a matter of a few hundred years, it may be a matter of billions of years. Or it may be that vast majority of technological civilization self destructs within a few hundred or few thousand years, but if a technological civilization survive more than a few thousand years, then it's has high likelihood of surviving for millions or billions of years.

I personally think if there are artifacts of alien civilization 10,000 years more advanced then us within detection range of our instruments, we have a high chance of not being able to recognize it. Much of the alien evidence we search for seem to be based on one of two assumptions - either aliens want to talk to us and would therefore give us signed appropriately dumbed down for our comprehension, or aliens are wasteful and have imperfect command of their technologies so we can spy them through various us intended leakages of their information, which we assume we would recognize when we see them. I fing both assumptions problematic.

We are at the very beginning of our technological civilization development. There is no meaningful length by which any alien civilization can be less advance than us, and still be considered a technological civilization, or a civilization at all. But the age of the universe gives perhaps an 6-8 billion year margin by which some civilization might have surpassed us. If there are 10,000 enduring civilizations in the Milky Way more advanced than we are, and the degree to which they surpass us is more or less random, then the chances are the civilization closest to use in technological development would be 600,000-800,000 years ahead of us.

If my suspicion that artifact of any alien 10,000 years ahead of us would already likely be unrecognizable to us, then it seems probably even with 10,000 alien civilizations staring us in the face, we would recognize none of them.