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[watchamadoodle]

For Ehrman to say he is certain of HJ is absurd. Certain? You have to be kidding me. I don't think there's even a 10% chance of it given the huge lack of evidence.

I agree with your assessment. If we use your tub full of candy that might contain either an even or odd count, this situation seems similar to me. The mythicists say odd, and the historicists say even. Each group has a few weak arguments and scraps of flimsy evidence for their claims. I think the sensible position is to remain unconvinced. Jesus may have existed or he may not have existed. If I had to make a wild guess, then I would guess that Jesus existed - but only because most of the historians guess this. It's still be not much better than flipping a coin.