Proving The Resurrection By the Minimal Facts Approach

[Jenny A]

Randy,

Some general probabilities:

Chances of someone being resurrected (not just raised from the dead but raised eternally):  about zero, but there's about 6.5 billion people on earth at present none of whom has been raised from the dead or seen someone raised from the dead, so we'll call it 6.5 billion just to have a number that isn't zero. 

Chances of a person being misdiagnoses as dead:  well a quick google search came up with about 30 cases in the first five pages and that's just the ones that hit the news. 

Writing in 1895, the physician J.C. Ouseley claimed that as many as 2,700 people were buried prematurely each year in England and Wales, although others estimated the figure to be closer to 800.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death#Misdiagnosed There were over 27 million people in England and Wales in 1891 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_England.  Assuming that medicine of the 1st Century was about the same as the 19th (which is generous) the mortality rate was about a 1000 so a year giving us about 27,000 deaths per year in England.  So we're looking at the chances of being misdiagnosed as dead at about 4 in 135 or about 3%.

I don't know how to determine the probability of people having elaborate visions of things that aren't real.  But the number of people who think they've been abducted by aliens is well over 800 in the U.S. and most of them test as otherwise psychologically normal. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alien_abdu...ite_note-9  And that's just in the U.S. and just one kind of complex vision.  There are about 35 million people in the U.S. today and study covered a number of years so lets be very generous and say the chances of any of them thinking they were abducted by aliens is about  8 to 500,000 or .000016%.  And keep in mind that that's just one type of vision.

And then there's the chance that some people who claimed to see Jesus just plain lied, or made up other witnesses.  Whatever the chances are, I'm sure they are much better than .000016%

Any guesses about the chances of a body being taken from a tomb?  I'm pretty sure they don't look much like one to 6.5 billion either.

I don't see that Bayesian analysis is going to get you over that 6.5 billion to one hurdle anytime soon.