So, the last few days, I've been trying to reconcile the polls, which mostly show Romney in the lead, or at best, tied with Obama. All the news stations are calling it a dead heat. But 538, Intrade, and every bookie in the country is in favor of Obama, and as a matter of fact, Romneys betting odds for winning have only gotten worse over the last 4 or 5 days.
I realize that it is possible to win electoral votes and lose the popular vote, and that may happen. However, other less formal forms of polling show Obama with a decent lead in the popular vote as well, and those are often more correct than polls.
Why is that?
Then yesterday, I was reading an article about polls and cell phones.
The vast majority of official polls are call based, and they call few (and sometimes no) cell phones, let alone other communication devices. In the last 4 to 6 years, (I think specifically, this trend has really accelerated in the last few years, so may not have been experience to this degree in any previous elections), a Large number of Americans have completely given up using land lines, and now use cell or other mobile device only for communication.
Can you guess who makes up the majority of this wireless demographic? Younger people, who we all know tend to lean left. Also the more educated, again, tend to lean left.
Is it possible that phone polls are simply reaching an older, more likely to lean right demographic, and that is skewing the polls by 5 or more points? I think it is VERY possible.
I don't see much coverage of this as an issue in the news, so I could be completely wrong, but it would explain the vast discrepancy we are seeing in official phone polls vs. bookies and/or other unofficial polling methods.
What do you think?
I realize that it is possible to win electoral votes and lose the popular vote, and that may happen. However, other less formal forms of polling show Obama with a decent lead in the popular vote as well, and those are often more correct than polls.
Why is that?
Then yesterday, I was reading an article about polls and cell phones.
The vast majority of official polls are call based, and they call few (and sometimes no) cell phones, let alone other communication devices. In the last 4 to 6 years, (I think specifically, this trend has really accelerated in the last few years, so may not have been experience to this degree in any previous elections), a Large number of Americans have completely given up using land lines, and now use cell or other mobile device only for communication.
Can you guess who makes up the majority of this wireless demographic? Younger people, who we all know tend to lean left. Also the more educated, again, tend to lean left.
Is it possible that phone polls are simply reaching an older, more likely to lean right demographic, and that is skewing the polls by 5 or more points? I think it is VERY possible.
I don't see much coverage of this as an issue in the news, so I could be completely wrong, but it would explain the vast discrepancy we are seeing in official phone polls vs. bookies and/or other unofficial polling methods.
What do you think?
“Eternity is a terrible thought. I mean, where's it going to end?”
― Tom Stoppard, Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead
― Tom Stoppard, Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead
