On the lunacy of free will

[Ferrocyanide]

To the OP, you do you believe your claims because you think they are true or because the initial conditions of the universe make you believe it?

Interesting question. 

I believe my claims because elementary forces and particles which made up the early Universe formed more complex elementary particles and energy structures over billions of years both through expansion, gravitational and cooling processes as well as through multiple cycles of star formation and destruction. These more complex elementary particles, in the form of heavier atomic elements, again through mainly gravitational processes allowed for the formation of solid planets, one of which randomly happened to be in the goldilocks zone around a random star in a random arm in a random galaxy in a random supercluster. 

Over billions of years this planet cooled and naturally transformed to have liquid surface water containing a primordial soup of ingredients capable of sustaining life. Life is kickstarted by random interactions over eons, or possibly acquired through panspermia from other, even older worlds. Wind forward millions of generations of evolution through natural selection and several of the branches of the evolutionary tree evolve to have conscious thought, as well as awareness of self, one of which ultimately wins out, being homo sapiens, to ultimately form a global society. 

On the way there, humanity moves through a number stages of societal evolution - 

1. Family arranged hunter gatherers with very little culture or community. 
   
2. Neolithic, simple farming communities with fixed human settlements that have caused humans to ask "why"? Why was my farm flooded? Why did my family member die? I am scared of dying. What happens to me when I do? The only explanation for any of these questions at that time was supernatural. A plethora of different Gods and deities develop all around the world whose worship not only offers "answers" to absolutely all questions, but also a perceived control over the world. Ie. pleasing someone who is angry with you to fix the problem gives you much more control than not having any clue whatsoever. Conveniently having these deities and Gods also provide a means to enforce building of a better society with built in moral code enforced by someone free of chance. 
   
3. More complex societies based on centralised leadership covering vast territories form. The built in tendencies and traditional reliance on answers remain the primary tool for societal control, but become harder to administer and shape when based on many or multiple Gods. Monotheism takes over and becomes centrally managed and enforced. Armies of trained priests scour the land spreading the message and inducting (or punishing) as required to achieve compliance. Many large scale societies which are based around a single inherent God paradigm fight wars to convert other cultures - the non-conquest equivalent is to send missionaries. This further strengthens their belief and commitment to this end to the point where non-conformity of belief is akin to societal outcast.
   
4. Science becomes more advanced and eventually provides answers to all but the most fundamental philosophical questions. Society becomes global with the ability to physically travel anywhere in the world within a day, and communicate instantly. This creates access to individuals of an awesome array of global knowledge of history, an awareness of other cultures and ideas, and exposure to many different ways of thinking.
   

We are at stage 4. There is a philosophical "War" between the logical explanations provided by Science and historical context of how we got to where we are today, and the traditional, superstitious world view with all the conveniences of societal control, sense of community, mental crutch from a consistently available imaginary friend, but the catch is adherence to blind belief in a non-existent entity to support it all - and the kicker is the whole paradigm is self perpetuating in the sense that it is fundamentally designed to discourage self scrutiny or free thought. Increasingly as human understanding and knowledge increases, the explanations provided by religion are becoming completely irrelevant, and non-sensical when applied to a modern Zeitgeist, such as the explanation of free "will" in the concept of a religions paradigm.


I believe that in a few hundred years the concept of a monotheistic religion will be perceived as outdated and unnecessary, apart from in possibly isolated pockets of society. It will be as outdated as the belief in forest spirits, moon gods, or gods of fertility.

That's good but I would move the "WHY" from #2 to #1. History does not record who asked the big questions first but I imagine that wondering what you are, and why things exist comes before the development of language. I think the capacity to think and wonder was present before the invention of language.
At some point, language started to develop but I'm sure it takes time to nail down words for a bison, a deer, a lion. Perhaps they started by imitating the sounds those animals make.
At some point, they decided to create names for each person. At some point, they decided to invent words such as "hunger" and other basic needs so that they can inform each other that they feel hunger or feel sleepy or feel tired or feel cold.
At some point, they decided that spirits exist. When you die, that air has left the body.
Perhaps the wind, rain and other objects have their own spirits. This is called animism.
The concept of things having spirits might turn into gods that are behind these forces.
So, humans beg and pray for these spirits to not harm them or bring them good fortune.
So, that leads to polytheism.

I think that monotheism simplifies things. Humans tend to prefer simple things rather than remembering the names of 200 gods and what they do, where they rule.
So, fusing all the gods into 1 guy simplifies things. He is everywhere or he is above us, watching us all.
People also prefer having a powerful friend, a powerful protector, so that is an attractive feature of monotheism.