Options at a Brokered Convention

[AFTT47]

If no Republican candidate wins a total of 1237 delegates, there will be a brokered convention. This is a very real possibility. It is very unlikely that anyone other than Donald Trump has any realistic chance to get to 1237. But Trump may not get there either. This is especially true if he fails to win both Florida and Ohio. Even if he does win both, either Rubio or Kasich remaining in the race would all but guarantee he would not get to 1237. They could certainly justify remaining in the race in the face of a brokered convention. But then what?

Assuming nobody wins 1237 delegates, there are only two reasonable possibilities: Trump has the most with Cruz in second or Cruz has the most with Trump in second. Is there truly a realistic option to choose a candidate who is not the top delegate earner - perhaps even one who came in third or fourth? It seems to me like there would be such a voter backlash, the very continued existence of the party would be in question. This is especially true if Trump holds the most delegates and a different candidate is chosen. In that scenario, I have a hard time imagining Trump NOT running as an independent or even as a candidate of a newly formed party. The Republican candidate would likely come in third place in the general election.

So can the Republicans REALLY afford to screw over Trump? I don't see them taking such a risk. If Cruz passes Trump in delegates then he should be awarded the nomination but only then. And then they can pray that Trump won't still run as an independent.

It massively sucks to be Republican.

[Tiberius]

What are the rules concerning how delegates can vote? There was an episode of The West Wing once where there were 3 Democratic candidates and none of them got the required amount of votes before the convention, so there was a load of infighting and delegates who suddenly decided to switch their votes to a 4th candidate.

Is the Republican system any better? Are delegates required to vote for whomever the voters told them to support, or are they free to change their minds? Or was The West Wing episode more fictional than fact in that sense?

[Minimalist]

So can the Republicans REALLY afford to screw over Trump? I don't see them taking such a risk.

If they were approaching this logically, then no.  But these people think with their balls.  And when you do that you can convince yourself of anything.  There is such a party line in the GOP that the slightest deviation gets you in trouble.  In that way they are like the Communist Party but it is the party of the late '20's where Stalin and Trotsky are feuding.

[AFTT47]

I believe they can pick whoever they want - in theory. I just wonder what the real-world consequences would be if they went against the will of the voters and would they be willing to risk that. I sure wouldn't if I were in their shoes.

[Minimalist]

What are the rules concerning how delegates can vote? There was an episode of The West Wing once where there were 3 Democratic candidates and none of them got the required amount of votes before the convention, so there was a load of infighting and delegates who suddenly decided to switch their votes to a 4th candidate.

Is the Republican system any better? Are delegates required to vote for whomever the voters told them to support, or are they free to change their minds? Or was The West Wing episode more fictional than fact in that sense?

Here, Divi Tiberio.  You'll probably find this fascinating.

http://lawnewz.com/important/how-the-gop...delegates/

So here’s how Trump could still lose according to a variety of election law experts with whom we spoke. The delegates could vote to change the convention rules even BEFORE the first round of balloting takes place. That’s right, in the days leading up to the convention, the RNC Rules Committee could recommend rules changes to the Convention Rules Committee. That committee could tweak the recommendations but they they would ultimately have to send the new rules to the floor of the convention for a vote by the delegates. If the delegates vote to change the rules so as to ‘unbind’ themselves, then they could vote for whoever they wanted even in that first round.

[vorlon13]

If all the Cruz and all the Trump supporters/delegates have a second choice and it's Kasich, and he's polling well against the dem nominee, logic dictates the party must implode.

[KUSA]

I can't get used to Ted's anti Duchenne smile.

[Old Baby]

I've always voted GOP prior to my deconversion. The GOP has been going through an identity crisis for years now, and it's not going to get better. Their most enthusiastic constituency are the social conservatives, but now that gays can get married they can't really champion that cause anymore. Is there anyone left who still thinks abortion is going away? The message of the moderate wing of the party seems to be "Democrats are bad" and "OMG we gotta stop Obama". They don't know how to sell their message, and it's doubtful most of the career politicians still believe in it or care about it. They're just there to collect a check and serve special interests.

[TheRealJoeFish]

I know at least one person who has stated (paraphrasing): "if those establishment bastards take the nomination away from Trump, I'll be first in line to vote for Hillary."

Extrapolating, that's gotta be, like... a billion people who think that

[Thumpalumpacus]

A brokered convention would almost surely be a disaster for the Republicans. No matter who gets chosen, followers of the other candidates (or all the candidates if an outsider steps in) will feel cheated.

Their problem is that the most likely nominee, Trump, would be a November disaster for them, in all likelihood.

I wonder how many Republicans are nostalgic for Tricky Dick right now ...