Universal basic income in the future

[Mister Agenda]

We didn't do it long ago because the technology wasn't there yet. That logic is like thinking the jobs of chandlers were safe when electric lights were still impractical. Picking robots are coming along nicely. It isn't a coincidence that we lose over 2% of agricultural workers in the USA annually.

[The Grand Nudger]

We -did- do it long ago, at least as long ago as the domestication of animals.  We've been doing it ever since.  I;m simply pointing out that field labor is resilient in ways that make it difficult for past, present, and reasonable near or mid term future automation to drastically effect it.

-We- lose those workers due to a very specific set of circumstance that are not present in the world as a whole..and do not seem to be likely to persist in our country specifically (imo). What we don't lose..though, is the -need- and cost for that labor..which steadily grows. That's why producers want to turn to robots. Here's a story about a berry picker, and driscolls (you've probably seen them in your local store). The trouble, ofc, is that even when technology exists, it is not and cannot be uniformly deployed. The trouble for ag automation goes much, much deeper than whether or not we can build a robot, which..honestly, again, we can;t -but we're working on it-...and that's my point.

https://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/?t...oogle.com/

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For fun, let's try to sucker Vorlon in.  I'm sure there's a machine or attachment he doesn;t have, something new and fancy.....that could conceivably reduce his human or machine labor costs.  There's nothing that can do what I want to do..but there probably is something for him, with a more traditional model.

Why doesn't he own that item (not, specifically now, in that he; looking to retire or die..as it were ; but why wasn't it purchased already?) 

Similarly, but not specifically for vorlon, why do small shops employ more human labor, why is there less automation on their floor..even in heavily automated sectors?

[SteelCurtain]

There will always be work in the service industry, too.

It's the not so slow erosion of the total amount of work that is available which is scary.

[The Grand Nudger]

Here's an example of an actual automation problem I have, to take it out of the realm of hypotheticals.  I;d like for people to ponder just what sort of toy would be required to do this.  

I need a machine that can moniter and diagnose the most common disorders and diseases in tilapia or varying size, life stage, and patterns.  That can also moniter water quality and flow, diagnosing blockages both current and potential.  I need a machine that can plant, dress, and clean seedlings with the finesse of human fingers to be set in-state in a gravel bed..which must, itself, be maintained.  I need a machine capable of diagnosing common (and rare) plant disorders, diseases, and a range of pests common to greenhouse environment..that can then take appropriate action to reduce my loss from those pests.  I need a machine capable of monitering both the greenhouse environment and the greenhouse itself, making necessarry alterations and repairs as they crop up.  I need a machine that can moniter the weather and coordinate -all- of the previous bits with that data.  I need a machine that can move around that system, recognizing different stages of grwoth in the crop and picking those mature blocks with less waste than an experienced human eye and hand and mind at a lesser cost.  I need a machine that can interact with customers, giving on-site tours and positively selling the product -and- the method...-and- the model. 

I need all of this..for a space just 30x60 feet long.....out of a much larger operation..the rest of which has absolutely no resemblance to that 30x60- space.  I need a machine that does all that..for -each- of those 30x60 spaces...which might not even be in the same place, cater to the same customers, sell the same product, or use the same cultural methods.

I;ve left out a mountain of minutae which must also be accounted for by that machine - which I take for granted..which even the most unskilled laborer takes for granted.  I already employ a ton of automation to achieve many of those tasks...I;m not completely repulsed by the idea nor do I think it would be patently impossible.....I only doubt that it would be feasible.  

Particularly, when Juan's human labor is available to me, as is my own. I could already buy automation..I could buy a tractor - it wouldn;t work my greenhouse but it could work a field of corn. I could attach a plow to a draft horse. That's a legitimite thing here and is making one grower alot of money while his tractored up neighbors are going out of business....... largely on the backs of their tractor payments. I simply have no need for it..it would be a pointless (and disastrous) expenditure. I do, however, have need of Juan.

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@Steel, or the quality of what work that remains..hehehe.  

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I want to add that I;m openly and explicitly biased.  I really do think that, in future, alot more people will be employed in ag, and necessarrily so, than there are now.  This last 60 years will have been a blip in a much larger trend. It;s perfectly okay to discount my wishes and dreams of a future full of farms and farmers as just a person dreaming about the future success of their own model -which may never materialize.

Maybe we'll all be eating blocks of algae grown in labs by simple robots that already exist. It could happen. I'll miss the okra...and the watermelons, though.

[Aegon]

So here I am two years later bumping this thread because we have a presidential candidate gaining more and more support on the idea of universal basic income.

Thoughts?

[onlinebiker]

Just what we need.

A whole generation living in their mother's basement drawing pogie.....


That'll motivate 'em huh?

[Aegon]

Just what we need.

A whole generation living in their mother's basement drawing pogie.....


That'll motivate 'em huh?

I think that's a fair immediate assumption to make, but not a fair conclusion.

[Fake Messiah]

Well sure one day everything will be free because we will have replicators like in Star Trek and robot servants.

[Anomalocaris]

So here I am two years later bumping this thread because we have a presidential candidate gaining more and more support on the idea of universal basic income.

Thoughts?

I would prefer a system of make work where income correlated to level of performance at work, but work is made available even through make-work projects if necessary , rather than a system of guaranteed universal basic income.

It is necessary to ensure everyone understand there is such a thing as too lazy to be fed.

If people are paid based on performance doing even redundant work, then at least they would still be accustomed to working harder for more pay and would not turn down more productive work should opportunity for such arise.

[Chad32]

Just what we need.

A whole generation living in their mother's basement drawing pogie.....


That'll motivate 'em huh?

People are already living in their parent's basement, because they can't afford to live on their own with just one job, aren't they?