odds against wining the lottery

[athoughtfulman]

But the probability would be exactly the same for whatever sequence because a consecutive sequence of 10 (how many numbers to enter?) must simply be looked at like another sequence. It looks more probably because we're familiar with the order, when really there is no order to it except what we put to it.

[bozo]

it sounds more improbable that a consecutive sequence will pop up?
As far as I know, such a sequence has never popped up.

It's because there are far more combinations of non-consecutive numbers than consecutive ones

So a non-consecutive run is more probable, but the odds of a consecutive run are still the same, in the sense of the chance of picking the 6 numbers that the machine selects?

[leo-rcc]

Basically it comes down to this:

The odds of winning the lottery with 1 2 3 4 5 6 is just a small as the exact string 14 21 37 42 50 55 or any other string of previously defined non consecutive numbers.

The odds of a random string of numbers coming out as predefined is however very small.

[athoughtfulman]

That's what I meant. You just made it sound nice

[Tiberius]

So a non-consecutive run is more probable, but the odds of a consecutive run are still the same, in the sense of the chance of picking the 6 numbers that the machine selects?

The only reason a non-consecutive run is more "probable" is because there are only a few consecutive runs out of the billions of ball arrangements. Thus you will always get more non-consecutive runs than consecutive. The chances are the same though. Think about it like this:

You have a bag with 10 balls in it, 9 of them are black, 1 of them is red. The black balls are all linked to non-consecutive numbers, and the red ball is a consecutive number. The chances of pulling the red ball out is 1/10, whilst the chances of pulling a black ball out is 9/10. On face value, it looks like choosing a consecutive number is better, but remember that the lottery is all about matching a pre-determined "choice" to a number of balls. When you factor this pre-determined choice in, the colour of the balls loses all meaning in the probability of things, because what you are actually after is the selection of a number. If each ball has a different consecutive or non-consecutive number on it, then the chances of matching that number to your pre-chosen number is 1/10 for every single ball.

This video might help you understand the thing about probability and pre-determined results:

[youtube]X1uJD1O3L08[/youtube]

Here's how he did it:

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The full film above is 9 hours long. Derren Brown simply tossed a coin for 9 hours until 10 heads in a row came up. Throughout that hour a lot of other combinations of 10 flips came up, but none were the combination he needed.

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[bozo]

Thanks to all for the explanations. I'm still trying to win!

[Kyuuketsuki]

I used to play because the dream of winning was more important to me than the logic that I wouldn't

Kyu

[leo-rcc]

There is nothing wrong with hoping to win of course, just as long as you are able to cope with your loss.

[Edwardo Piet]

Well I don't find it fun in the short run. And I know it's also not effective in the long run too - so I don't bother.

I would much rather just play Hold 'Em. That's a fun game and there's actually some gameplay in it too

I'm like a robot when it comes to poker lol. - if I could improve my skill so I was a lot better then I'd also of course still have that advantage to over some others in the sense I never go off tilt even if it's with a lot of money (relative to me).

EvF