RE: Climate catastrophe isn't so certain
May 11, 2012 at 7:27 pm
(This post was last modified: May 11, 2012 at 7:41 pm by The Grand Nudger.)
Was there warning in 1983? Were we in a position to do something about this? Why did our system of disaster relief fail in this scenario? I'm not comfortable laying the blame for human tragedies on the weather if we could insert ourselves and avert it.
I'm not on the other side of any fence here, I'm merely mentioning that claiming "millions" of casualties without quantifying the who's or how's is fear mongering, it doesn't help. We don't even need to give this rock a nudge to help it inflict millions of casualties in the first place. If people want to claim that they have somehow warned someone of impending catastrophe, they'd better be able to quantify it, otherwise they are making a vague prediction and then counting the "hits" after the fact (if the prediction becomes a fact in the first place). Common practice, for scam artists, not scientists.
Lets say, in our theoretical New York scenario, that water comes up a fraction of an inch a year. That's ample time. If it rushes over the seawalls all at once 80 feet high, it is not. The first is human stupidity, the second is ACC. The first is conceivable, the second, not quite so much.
IOW, does the ocean get stormier? Where, and by how much? How would we make boats more seaworthy after establishing these two variables at the very least? That would be good policy. Millions will die because the sky is falling, not so much.
(it would take quite a bit to utterly wreck a boat designated as seaworthy and kill the crew nowadays btw, a little extra wind isn't going to cut it. Operator error is a common cause for failure "the sea took them" doesn't make it to the lists very often)
I'm not on the other side of any fence here, I'm merely mentioning that claiming "millions" of casualties without quantifying the who's or how's is fear mongering, it doesn't help. We don't even need to give this rock a nudge to help it inflict millions of casualties in the first place. If people want to claim that they have somehow warned someone of impending catastrophe, they'd better be able to quantify it, otherwise they are making a vague prediction and then counting the "hits" after the fact (if the prediction becomes a fact in the first place). Common practice, for scam artists, not scientists.
Lets say, in our theoretical New York scenario, that water comes up a fraction of an inch a year. That's ample time. If it rushes over the seawalls all at once 80 feet high, it is not. The first is human stupidity, the second is ACC. The first is conceivable, the second, not quite so much.
IOW, does the ocean get stormier? Where, and by how much? How would we make boats more seaworthy after establishing these two variables at the very least? That would be good policy. Millions will die because the sky is falling, not so much.
(it would take quite a bit to utterly wreck a boat designated as seaworthy and kill the crew nowadays btw, a little extra wind isn't going to cut it. Operator error is a common cause for failure "the sea took them" doesn't make it to the lists very often)
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