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RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 4:58 am
(This post was last modified: March 13, 2016 at 4:58 am by robvalue.)
That's a good way of putting it, yes! 
People often refuse to accept mathematical proofs, because of an emotional response. Like some people won't accept that 0.9 recurring is equal to 1. I can prove it to them multiple ways, and they will agree with the premise and every step, including reaching the conclusion. But then they reject the conclusion because it's "wrong".
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RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 6:49 am
(This post was last modified: March 13, 2016 at 7:01 am by Excited Penguin.)
I flamed someone. The mods can still see it, I think. In the meanwhile, not everyone deserves my attention.
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RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 7:04 am
Yeah, I agree with EP on this one. All of you are wrong except him.
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RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 7:13 am
(March 13, 2016 at 7:04 am)pool the great Wrote: Yeah, I agree with EP on this one. All of you are wrong except him.
I was looking at it from a totally different perspective, and I guess you are too. But I changed my mind since then.
Inb4 you're called ignorant and encouraged to study probability you should probabily caveat the hell out of your statement. It seems we live in a society where disagreement is frowned upon and math is dogmatic.
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RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 7:16 am
Actually no, I'm pretty confident that I can defend my position with no problem. Read about 2pages and already saw some logical errors in the arguments that were used against you but were not noticed. Can't wait to point them out once they use it on me.
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RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 7:28 am
(March 13, 2016 at 7:16 am)pool the great Wrote: Actually no, I'm pretty confident that I can defend my position with no problem.[...]
That's nice. You're still wrong. I think the problem and the solution has clearly been explained in this thread alone, so if you have any arguments - this would be the time to present them. But I won't be holding my breath, personally. Probability's a b*tch and using intuition when dealing with it is a bad idea. And mathematically - the correct solution is clear.
"The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one." - George Bernard Shaw
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RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 7:36 am
(This post was last modified: March 13, 2016 at 7:36 am by robvalue.)
Editing
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RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 7:37 am
(March 13, 2016 at 7:28 am)Homeless Nutter Wrote: (March 13, 2016 at 7:16 am)pool the great Wrote: Actually no, I'm pretty confident that I can defend my position with no problem.[...]
That's nice. You're still wrong. I think the problem and the solution has clearly been explained in this thread alone, so if you have any arguments - this would be the time to present them. But I won't be holding my breath, personally. Probability's a b*tch and using intuition when dealing with it is a bad idea. And mathematically - the correct solution is clear.
You may have the correct mathematical solution but you fail to realize the objective of the question is to form the right answer, not the right mathematical answer. And you fail to prove the right mathematical answer is the identical of the right answer.
I could invent a new study poolematical and formulate the correct answer according to poolematical. I do have the right poolematical answer but do I have the right answer?
Pahahaha
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RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 7:43 am
(This post was last modified: March 13, 2016 at 7:45 am by robvalue.)
You code, don't you pool?
Go for it. Write a program, and use the switching strategy every time. See how often you win.
You just have to figure out which door the guy opens. If you picked right initially, he randomly picks one of the other two doors to open. If you picked wrong, he picks the remaining wrong door. Then you switch to the other door, regardless. You will find you win close to 2/3 of the time.
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RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 7:47 am
(This post was last modified: March 13, 2016 at 7:47 am by Homeless Nutter.)
(March 13, 2016 at 7:37 am)pool the great Wrote: [...]I could invent a new study poolematical and formulate the correct answer according to poolematical. I do have the right poolematical answer but do I have the right answer?
If "poolematical" (did you mean - "poolemathics"? I mean that would be a noun, at least, rather than an adjective, but whatever, have it your way...) is anything like mathematics - then yes.
"The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one." - George Bernard Shaw
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