Russia and Ukraine

[ShinyCrystals]

So, you are saying the USA is not going to play a big factor for Ukraine? I mean, it does make sense if that is what you’re going for here.

I'm pointing out that we're not the primary driver of whether or not ukranian artillery can keep firing.  The best we can do is buy it from other countries to facilitate transfer, but that assumes stock for sale.

Yeah. While I may have not made it that clear, that is what I was trying to say, actually.

[The Grand Nudger]

I think that the dire framing is about adding a greater sense of urgency. The russians already tried to win by out arty-ing ukraine..and it got them here. They may have to retreat, and no one wants them to give russia an inch - but shell hunger isn't going to be the thing that makes ukraine cease to exist.

[Thumpalumpacus]

When they weren't suffering shell hunger they engineered what the russians called an artillery genocide.  At best, the russians have a 2-1 numerical advantage in artillery pieces, assuming everything russia has listed actually exists and is functional.  It started out worse, the russians numerical advantage hasn't worked out for them.

The us isn't actually the key piece on this one, because most of their arty, 2/3rds or 3/4s I can't recall offhand, is soviet standard.  We don't have that stuff.  We don't make that stuff.  We don't use that stuff.  We play war daddy, going around the world buying it up...but people have been telling us no.  What they need from us are patriots and short range air defense...which won't help with the arty situation, but it would put a damper on the terror attacks and give ukrainian mechanized forces a way to advance in the face of k series helicopters.

We also need to keep supplying HIMARs and ATACMs to extend the range of Ukrainian arty into the hundreds of clicks.

We may not be sending many barrels, but the Ukrainians have high praise for the 777s they're gotten.

[Thumpalumpacus]

ISW continues to assess that the development of Ukraine’s defense industrial base (DIB) over time can allow Ukraine to sustain its defense against Russia and longer-term national security needs with significantly reduced foreign military assistance.[4] Ukrainian officials have expressed their intention to expand Ukraine’s DIB domestically and abroad since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, and Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov previously identified increased Ukrainian domestic production of weapons and military equipment as a priority for 2024.[5] US State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller has stated that the short- and medium-term provision of Western air defenses to Ukraine will be a critical element of Ukraine’s ability to stand up its defense industry, which will, in turn, decrease Ukrainian dependence on Western aid and especially US aid to Ukraine in the long term.[6] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently emphasized that Ukraine cannot mitigate the lack of sufficient air defense systems and that only Western-provided air defense systems, namely Patriot systems, allow Ukraine to defend Ukraine against the intensified Russia strike campaign.[7] ISW continues to assess that the US will not need to send large security assistance packages to Ukraine indefinitely if Ukraine can sufficiently expand its defensive industrial capacity, but the West’s provision of air defense systems and missiles to Ukraine is crucial for Ukraine’s ability to defend its energy infrastructure and its developing defense industry against Russian strikes.[8]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgro...ct-updates

[GUBU]

So, how much longer might Ukraine last, because it seems they are not going to last much longer, given the article in the post right above this one.

Given all the talk of imminent Ruzzian victory, I'd say about six months, before they enter Moscow naturally.

[ShinyCrystals]

So, how much longer might Ukraine last, because it seems they are not going to last much longer, given the article in the post right above this one.

Given all the talk of imminent Ruzzian victory, I'd say about six months, before they enter Moscow naturally.

By “enter”, do you mean as become a part of Russia in some way? Just wanted to make sure.

[pocaracas]

Oh boy...
Russia wants eastern Ukraine which is the area that they mostly control at the moment. This gives them a land passage to Crimea and access to underground resources.
The war is done from their point of view. Just need to hold the line.

Ukraine, however, wants to regain their full territory. Given how things are going, I doubt that they will ever manage to do so, which means this will be an ever going skirmish... kinda like Palestine is having against Israel.
A few more missiles or tanks or planes won't be of significant help towards their goal, just to maintain the new border (that the russians claim is the old border, but that we can claim it wasn't a border prior to the one the russians claim and then who cares?)

[The Grand Nudger]

Putin says it isn't over until ukraine is eradicated from the earth and the minds of ukranians. He never wanted eastern ukraine itself, they had no need for any of it's natural resources - and russia was clearly no friend to the separatists..just ask the few remaining separatists, lol. The only point of stirring up shit there was to keep ukraine out of nato so that they could invade - as they've done. Ultimately, though, I think you've got it about right. No matter where the border ends up (and..I think..even if ukraine regains it's full territory) there will be skirmishes for years, possibly decades.

That's one reason why a rational actor would go home...but as we see, wars are not always commanded by rational actors. Sometimes they're commanded by an aging bunker bitch whose legacy depends on establishing new russia by forever war against it's poorest neighbors.

[GUBU]

Given all the talk of imminent Ruzzian victory, I'd say about six months, before they enter Moscow naturally.

By “enter”, do you mean as become a part of Russia in some way? Just wanted to make sure.

By enter I mean, do onto Moscow what the Romans did onto Carthage.

I'm using hyperbole of course, but every time we've heard a ramping up of "Ruzzia are just on the cusp of winning" so far, it's simply presaged a massive underperformance and reverse for Putain's Schutzstaffel.

[ShinyCrystals]

By “enter”, do you mean as become a part of Russia in some way? Just wanted to make sure.

By enter I mean, do onto Moscow what the Romans did onto Carthage.

I'm using hyperbole of course, but every time we've heard a ramping up of "Ruzzia are just on the cusp of winning" so far, it's simply presaged a massive underperformance and reverse for Putain's Schutzstaffel.

Ah I get it. Thanks for explaining!