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RE: GS Warriors one win away from setting new NBA record for most wins to start a season
December 9, 2015 at 11:37 am
(December 9, 2015 at 10:51 am)Cato Wrote: ...
Baseball is sufficiently different that I think the 35-5 start of the Detroit Tigers is superior, but there's no objective way to decide this. I would also place the '03-'04 Arsenal start above the GS start despite having draws in their incredible run, but again that's in consideration of the differences in the game.
...
A reasonable mathematical way to go about this would be to look at winning percentages, and their spread. In baseball, almost every team has a record between .400 and .600; you can extrapolate from this that even the best team would beat the worst team only about 2/3 of the time. In basketball, the records generally vary between .800 and .400, so the best team will beat the worst team maybe 9 out of every 10 times.
So, you could go something along the lines of, very roughly, the chance you win 23 games in a row with a 80% win probability vs. the chance you win 35 out of 40 with a 60% probability.
The first is (4/5)^23, which is about 1 in 170 chance.
The second is (3/5)^35 * (2/5)^5 * (40 choose 5), which is 1 in 8,633.
So, based on that quick calculation (and given the rather large difference in magnitude of the outcomes), I would say that, yes, it's easier for a really good NBA team to start 23-0 than it is for a really good baseball team to start 35-5, just based on the differences in the sports.
That calculation does make the difference look a lot bigger than it is, though, because it assumes that every team a good NBA team plays has a 20% chance of beating them and every team a good MLB team plays has a 40% chance of beating them. In reality, the greater variations in game-to-game probabilities (ie, the Spurs might have a 48% chance of beating the Warriors in San Antonio and the 76ers would have a .02% chance of beating the Warriors in Oakland) in basketball compared to baseball are going to minimize the impressiveness of a basketball run if you assume (as I did) that the day-to-day probabilities are uniform.
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RE: GS Warriors one win away from setting new NBA record for most wins to start a season
December 9, 2015 at 12:47 pm
(December 9, 2015 at 11:06 am)Tiberius Wrote: Ah Basketball, along with Hockey the only popular American sports I've failed to get into yet.
Curling? Though that's more of a Canadian thing, eh.
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RE: GS Warriors one win away from setting new NBA record for most wins to start a season
December 9, 2015 at 12:49 pm
Oh wait, Tibs said popular.
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RE: GS Warriors one win away from setting new NBA record for most wins to start a season
December 9, 2015 at 1:04 pm
(This post was last modified: December 9, 2015 at 1:09 pm by Whateverist.)
Even a dominant team in baseball is still going to lose some games. If a very good baseball team has 4 great pitchers with good relief in the bullpen along with decent hitting their probability of winning might go above 80%. But there is something fluky about hitting a fast moving, twisting sphere with a cylinder. Putting a sphere through a circle with twice its diameter isn't child's play but it doesn't involve shooting off the opposition's most diabolical pass.
I think defense in basketball plays a greater roll in deciding basketball games than it does in baseball, though perhaps less than it does in football. Probably football and basketball both lend themselves to extended winning streaks more than baseball does. So I agree that the Tiger's 35 - 5 start is the greater anomaly.
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RE: GS Warriors one win away from setting new NBA record for most wins to start a season
December 9, 2015 at 1:08 pm
Oh, and expect me to retire this thread in favor of a new one if they're still perfect by xmas. The title is already way out of date.
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RE: GS Warriors one win away from setting new NBA record for most wins to start a season
December 9, 2015 at 1:25 pm
Ah the 1984 tigers ![Smile Smile](https://atheistforums.org/images/smilies/smile.gif) Last time this city had a real winning team. Most people don't care so much about the NBA around here despite the successful mid 2000's (including championship in '04). We are a baseball and football city. Even hockey, since we have arguably the most successful franchise over the last 25 years, is still not nearly as huge as baseball and football.
35-5 in baseball is ridiculous. Don't get me wrong, I'm probably equally as impressed with GS 23-0 and I would LOVE to see them beat the 72-10 record, but mainly because I despise Jordan so much.
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RE: GS Warriors one win away from setting new NBA record for most wins to start a season
December 9, 2015 at 2:19 pm
(December 9, 2015 at 11:06 am)Tiberius Wrote: Ah Basketball, along with Hockey the only popular American sports I've failed to get into yet.
Basketball is popular world wide and Hockey is a Canadian thing.
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RE: GS Warriors one win away from setting new NBA record for most wins to start a season
December 9, 2015 at 2:22 pm
(December 9, 2015 at 1:25 pm)Kingpin Wrote: Don't get me wrong, I'm probably equally as impressed with GS 23-0 and I would LOVE to see them beat the 72-10 record, but mainly because I despise Jordan so much. ![Wink Wink](https://atheistforums.org/images/smilies/wink.gif)
Yeah but I'll concede the Tiger's start is the more impressive of the two.
I assume it is his character you despise and not his skills. Then again when the Bulls became dominant it was the Detroit team they pushed aside .. and then took your Rodman too. It is a pleasant surprise that Curry is as genuine and down to earth as he is. And like everyone else I am delighted that he is of ordinary stature bodily. But if they don't have at least three all stars this year - Draymond Green and Klay - they'll have been robbed.
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RE: GS Warriors one win away from setting new NBA record for most wins to start a season
December 9, 2015 at 2:25 pm
Something else to consider. Has any basketball team ever selected three players in the same draft as successful as Draymond Green, Harrison Barnes and Festus Ezeli? Festus was a project but boy has he gotten good. I just hope they can afford to keep him going forward. Same goes for Barnes. Probably one of them must go. *sob*
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RE: GS Warriors one win away from setting new NBA record for most wins to start a season
December 9, 2015 at 2:29 pm
(December 9, 2015 at 2:22 pm)Whateverist the White Wrote: (December 9, 2015 at 1:25 pm)Kingpin Wrote: Don't get me wrong, I'm probably equally as impressed with GS 23-0 and I would LOVE to see them beat the 72-10 record, but mainly because I despise Jordan so much. ![Wink Wink](https://atheistforums.org/images/smilies/wink.gif)
Yeah but I'll concede the Tiger's start is the more impressive of the two.
I assume it is his character you despise and not his skills. Then again when the Bulls became dominant it was the Detroit team they pushed aside .. and then took your Rodman too. It is a pleasant surprise that Curry is as genuine and down to earth as he is. And like everyone else I am delighted that he is of ordinary stature bodily. But if they don't have at least three all stars this year - Draymond Green and Klay - they'll have been robbed.
I HATED Jordan. everything about him. I was 9 when Detroit won their back to back titles in 88-89, but those games with the Bulls were so intense and there was really bad blood. I was taught to despise Jordan. His skills were without question, but his character in combination made him deplorable in my eyes.
Yeah I LOVE Steph. Incredible player. Just looks like a kid out there having fun, just like it should be. He thoroughly loves the game and those are the players I like most in pro sports. Some only want their pay check (see Marshawn Lynch "I'm here cause I have to"), but those that love the game are the best.
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