I recently had an argument with some dudes concerning probability. You see, this weekend there was 10 000 000 € as the prize in Lotto and we started to disuss the probability of actually getting seven numbers right out of 37 numbers.

Now, they stated that it is more likely to win, if you keep the same set of numbers every time you play. I on the other hand said that it's not true, since the probability for a set to be the winning one is always the same, because a set is not eliminated once it has been used. If this was the case, it would be indeed wise to use the same set of numbers, because the chances of winning would slightly increase with every game played.

I wonder, did I remember my probabilities right, or were the guys I argued with right?

The chances of any particular set of numbers turning up are exactly the same as any other set of numbers, regardless of whether they have turned up before or not.

For example, 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 is just as likely as any other set of numbers and just because it turns up once the chances of it turning up again the next week are exactly the same.

That is why I always go with a lucky dip

Thanks Dar. I thought as much

(October 2, 2011 at 6:59 am)Darwinian Wrote: For example, 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 is just as likely as any other set of numbers and just because it turns up once the chances of it turning up again the next week are exactly the same.

Though, if you have 1 2 3 4 5 6 7, you're not as likely to win the whole prize yourself, since that is the most popular set that people play with

(October 2, 2011 at 8:05 am)Kayenneh Wrote: Though, if you have 1 2 3 4 5 6 7, you're not as likely to win the whole prize yourself, since that is the most popular set that people play with

That's what everyone thinks which is why you should play it

(October 2, 2011 at 6:50 am)Kayenneh Wrote: I recently had an argument with some dudes concerning probability. You see, this weekend there was 10 000 000 € as the prize in Lotto

Oh crap, I forgot to play.

Well at least I know the chances of me winning are none, and they say nothing is certain in life.

(October 2, 2011 at 10:08 am)Welsh cake Wrote: Oh crap, I forgot to play.

Well at least I know the chances of me winning are none, and they say nothing is certain in life.

You know, not playing means that your chances of winning are 0, but if you play there's always the possibility that you do. Though granted, it's small as hell

(October 2, 2011 at 8:05 am)Kayenneh Wrote:

(October 2, 2011 at 6:59 am)Darwinian Wrote: For example, 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 is just as likely as any other set of numbers and just because it turns up once the chances of it turning up again the next week are exactly the same.

Though, if you have 1 2 3 4 5 6 7, you're not as likely to win the whole prize yourself, since that is the most popular set that people play with

Let's say the prize is $10m and you are one of ten people who have chosen 1 2 3 4 5 6 7, and let's say they are the winning numbers. In that case, you and the other 9 people will collect $1m for each winning ticket.

But what if you buy eleven tickets and select 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 on each of them. Now there are 20 winning tickets sharing the prize pool and each will pay $500,000 - but you have eleven shares and collect $5,500,000 (more than half the prize pool).

Purchase 91 tickets and now there are 100 tickets worth $100,000 each - but you have 91 shares and collect $9,100,000 (nearly all of the prize pool).


[Of course, you might lose.]

I know the probability of winning the national lottery (6 numbers out of 49) has been quoted at 14 million : 1, I'd imagine the odds of winning the Euromillions aren't too good either.

For comparisons sake, your odds of being killed in a car crash are 10,000 : 1.

By rights, you should die 140 times before winning the lottery, if odds were fair and, well, not a lottery.

(November 18, 2011 at 2:15 pm)Norfolk And Chance Wrote: has been quoted at 14 million : 1, I'd imagine the odds of winning the Euromillions aren't too good either.

Adccording to wolfram-alpha, the odds from euromilions are 1 in 116 531 800

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=euromilions