http://volewica.blogspot.com/2023/09/chi...eaked.html

China's extremely rapid adoption of EVs has forced oil giant Sinopec to adjust its forecasts, saying peak domestic gasoline demand has already passed and it's all downhill from here. The repercussions will be global; China has been the biggest growth market for refined oil products for more than 20 years.

Sucks to be Putin. Sucks to be the Saudis.

(September 10, 2023 at 9:28 am)LinuxGal Wrote: http://volewica.blogspot.com/2023/09/chi...eaked.html

China's extremely rapid adoption of EVs has forced oil giant Sinopec to adjust its forecasts, saying peak domestic gasoline demand has already passed and it's all downhill from here. The repercussions will be global; China has been the biggest growth market for refined oil products for more than 20 years.

Sucks to be Putin. Sucks to be the Saudis.

Not so bad for the planet, though.

Boru

(September 10, 2023 at 12:16 pm)BrianSoddingBoru4 Wrote:

(September 10, 2023 at 9:28 am)LinuxGal Wrote: http://volewica.blogspot.com/2023/09/chi...eaked.html

China's extremely rapid adoption of EVs has forced oil giant Sinopec to adjust its forecasts, saying peak domestic gasoline demand has already passed and it's all downhill from here. The repercussions will be global; China has been the biggest growth market for refined oil products for more than 20 years.

Sucks to be Putin. Sucks to be the Saudis.

Not so bad for the planet, though.

Boru

Depends on how that electricity is generated:



https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/CHN

Less of any type of fossil fuel is a help. In the case of China, the help is incremental, but still.

Boru

From the perspective of CO2 emission,   Burning coal to generate electricity to power EV is worse then burning gasoline in internal combustion engined cars by about 10-20%

China’s drive to electrify it’s private car sector very quickly is motivated by 2 thing:

1. Energy independence.   China has relative small domestic oil reserves for its needs, so burning gasoline means import dependence.  China has more coal reserves than it knows what to do with.

2. Get ahead of the EV adoption curve of other major car markets to give Chinese EV R&D and supply chain a head start advantage when other markets also climb up their own adoption curve.

China had stopped permitting new coal fired power plants and promised to phase out coal in favor of renewable resources.   But possibility of war over Taiwan has put renewed focus on Energy Indepednence so new coal fired power plants are being permitted again.

(September 10, 2023 at 1:01 pm)BrianSoddingBoru4 Wrote: Less of any type of fossil fuel is a help. In the case of China, the help is incremental, but still.

Boru

With coal still being the source for over 55% of China's electricity, I don't think it's much if any help.

Before WWII the US was a major exporter of oil. Cleverly, FDR got us into WWII by not giving the Japanese any of our oil.

j/k

(September 10, 2023 at 1:01 pm)BrianSoddingBoru4 Wrote: Less of any type of fossil fuel is a help. In the case of China, the help is incremental, but still.

Boru

Not if the fossil fuel is being substituted by another type of fossil fuel, which emits so much more CO2 for unit of energy it provides that the greater thermodynamic efficiency of power station compared to car engine can’t fully make up the difference.

Prior to end of Covid,  it looks like the increasing electric demand created by Chinese EVs are mostly supplied by new renewable generation, with coal generation remaining flat.    So the adoption of EV results in net reduction of CO2 emission across the economy.    However that is less clear now since Xi Jingping has put national security about climate security and new coal fired power plants are being permitted again.

(September 10, 2023 at 1:25 pm)Gawdzilla Sama Wrote: Before WWII the US was a major exporter of oil. Cleverly, FDR got us into WWII by not giving the Japanese any of our oil.

j/k  

[Fold]

(September 10, 2023 at 1:32 pm)LinuxGal Wrote:

(September 10, 2023 at 1:25 pm)Gawdzilla Sama Wrote: Before WWII the US was a major exporter of oil. Cleverly, FDR got us into WWII by not giving the Japanese any of our oil.

j/k  

 More clever to say the Japanese got us into WWII by striking our naval base on Oahu.

It is equally fair to say once the oil embargo is in place a war with Japan is absolutely certain, the only unknown is how it will start.

It is certain because without war, the oil embargo can only end in total diplomatic humiliation and credibility collapse of either the U.S. or Japan.     Either Japan capitulate and pull out of China, or the US capitulate and does nothing while Japan seizes what is now Indonesia and Malaysia.