(October 22, 2012 at 9:06 pm)festive1 Wrote: From my limited knowledge of earthquakes, I believe small tremors in some instances precede a larger quake. However, this is not always the case. I think the jury is still out on whether or not earthquakes can be accurately predicted. Perhaps more research will lead to more accurate predictions?

The only earthquake prediction shown to have anything more trivial levels of correlation with reality occurred within 30 seconds before the main quake. It's just about enough to start texting the word "run" to everyone in the area.

There is a location in California that is to earthquake prediction what Mecca is to Muslims. Earthquakes there seem to go off like clockwork. Geologists think they have the fault repo sidle as well mapped and instrumented as any in the world. Seismologists were pretty confident they can give an good prediction here if they can give one anywhere. They predicted one. The evidence looked so good. It didn't come.

Oops.

No, earthquake prediction is not yet a science. Science of seismology have much further to go before it can spawn the science of earthquake forecast useful for actual diseaster warning.

If I didn't know any better, I would say this was an Onion story. Except for one thing; it's not funny!

A little more information on this (taken from the "New Scientist" 27th October 2012, page 4)....
The 6 seismologists said at a meeting on the 31st of March 2009 (a week before the quake) "They could not rule out a major quake and it was best to be prepaired, but there was no good reason to think that one was coming" This advice was modified by the department's deputy head Bernarso De Bernardins who told the media that "The shocks were reducing the seismic stresses, lowering the chances of a major quake"
Things were complicated by a researcher at the nearby Grand Sasso National Laboratory who went out with a megaphone and also went online to tell people to evacuate based on radon emission data.

It seems to me that the PR people don't understand what they are being told..... but who is that ends up in jail?

(October 22, 2012 at 4:48 pm)Welsh cake Wrote: What is this I don't even...please someone rationally explain what just occurred here because I cannot comprehend how any justice system can be so corrupted and unfit for purpose.

I can - all western justice systems are extremely corrupt - ours (Australia) the USA's, the UK's, everyone's. You only have to look at the UK and how they're "handling" Assange for evidence of this!

The most outrageous thing of all is that tectonics plate theory is just a THEORY in the first place, and no theory produces absolute truth! As a theory it can be improved upon. Or even one day falsified, possibly.

I'll make sure to bring up this one with a mate of mine (he's a geologist), so we can talk about how dumb the Italians are!

Wow, just wow. Do you think the next time a weather forecaster is wrong, and it snows unexpectedly and people die in automobile accidents because they were unprepared, they can prosecute the meteorologists?

This is terrible, especially since the scientists qualified their statement that they couldn't rule out a major quake.

Stupid humans....

Wow. We might as well arrest fortune teller for not predicting this shit is coming. Bash the science and when things like this happen which is out of control of anybody, they get the blame. We should might as well put God in trial. Dumb shit. Is there any sort of petition or something we can do?!

Quote:The most outrageous thing of all is that tectonics plate theory is just a THEORY in the first place, and no theory produces absolute truth! As a theory it can be improved upon. Or even one day falsified, possibly.

Wait. Don't tell me. You think your fairy god father causes earthquakes as punishment for "sin" I suppose?

I do not think that word means what he thinks it means. Inconceivably.

(November 4, 2012 at 4:18 am)Daniel Wrote: The most outrageous thing of all is that tectonics plate theory is just a THEORY in the first place, and no theory produces absolute truth! As a theory it can be improved upon. Or even one day falsified, possibly.

Care to test the "theory" of gravity?