(January 1, 2011 at 8:30 am)DoubtVsFaith Wrote: Is there anything surprising about humanity? Or are we all, when it comes down to it, ultimately predictable?
Thoughts?
As a whole? It largely depends on how intelligent the predictor is. I doubt someone of human intelligence can accurately predict what the human race as a whole entity can and will do in any given situation.
Certain generalizations are easily predictable (people will generally run or evacuate away from dangerous situations if they can help it, emergency services will respond to designated emergencies, and so on) but more specific and long-term predictions become increasingly difficult.
This also depends on whether or not the predictions account for humanity as a whole, individual nations, individuals, or whatever.
That in mind, predictive power comes with two things - the intelligence of the observer and the level of knowledge of the subject to which the predictor has available of the subject.
For example, trained experts in sociology will have a pretty good idea how groups of people will respond to given scenarios, whereas the layman will have only common knowledge, personal knowledge, and experience. (Which can be hit or miss.) Even so, the level of detail this sociologist can bring to the table is rather limited in detail.
A hyper-intelligent computer with the mental capacity of a million billion humans with intimate knowledge of human nature and knowledge of virtually every individual that exists is going to have enormous predictive power. (This is a thing that can happen thanks to moore's law and technological advancement).
So... to answer your question, yes, humans can be very predictable.
They can also be very surprising. Depends.
If today you can take a thing like evolution and make it a crime to teach in the public schools, tomorrow you can make it a crime to teach it in the private schools and next year you can make it a crime to teach it to the hustings or in the church. At the next session you may ban books and the newspapers...
Ignorance and fanaticism are ever busy and need feeding. Always feeding and gloating for more. Today it is the public school teachers; tomorrow the private. The next day the preachers and the lecturers, the magazines, the books, the newspapers. After a while, Your Honor, it is the setting of man against man and creed against creed until with flying banners and beating drums we are marching backward to the glorious ages of the sixteenth centry when bigots lighted fagots to burn the men who dared to bring any intelligence and enlightenment and culture to the human mind. ~Clarence Darrow, at the Scopes Monkey Trial, 1925
Politics is supposed to be the second-oldest profession. I have come to realize that it bears a very close resemblance to the first. ~Ronald Reagan