Ice In The Wintertime

[Minimalist]

i was surprised that no one commented yet on the North Korean "offer" to stop nuclear tests.

Perhaps all of you know this?  It's almost a certainty that the WLB doesn't.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/4/...lear-Offer

Surprisingly, there seems to be little attention to this developing story here on the Great Orange, only one diary scrolling away down the page as I write, but OMG!! North Korea has unilaterally offered to suspend its nuclear program; announcing a moratorium on testing of nuclear warheads and delivery systems, and even offering to demolish the only test site.

This is objectively good news.  But it’s not like North Korea has a choice. They don’t have a test site to demolish; it’s already gone.

Something so far entirely missing from the reporting on this is an occurrence, widely reported at the time, at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site immediately after the last underground warhead test. This test was conducted on September 3, 2017, and was of the largest yield yet tested by the Kim regime. It registered a 6.3 tremor and caused small landslides on the surface. Underground, the effects were far more severe. The detonation collapsed a major tunnel in the facility, killing about a hundred workers. About a hundred more were killed in a secondary collapse during a rescue attempt. There have been no tests since this accident. Thinking about it logically, that makes quite a bit of sense. A collapse big enough to kill that many people (some of which were almost certainly scientists and technicians critical to the work being done) would cripple any underground facility. The second collapse only underscores the untenable nature of any attempt to repair this bunker. It’s a goner.

This is the equivalent to giving the Orange Turd a big piece of chocolate cake to distract him.

[Fireball]

I saw that but figured it was just a lead for another punch from the other fist. I didn't see the bit about the workers killed. The backing down is good news, though that's not the spin it will be given. Now cheeto von tweeto can go bluster at someone else.

[Minimalist]

Is it backing down?  He has a missile that works and a bomb that works.  Does he really need more tests?

Let's see if the Orange Shitball gets him to shut down the production sites.

[Minimalist]

The MSM is catching on - and the Orange Turd is losing his mind.

https://www.rawstory.com/2018/04/trump-f...egotiator/

Trump freaks out on NBC’s Chuck Todd for exposing him as a lousy negotiator

Kim announced he would stop nuclear testing because the testing phase is concluded – not as a gift to Trump, who does not understand the difference. And experts say Kim’s announcement he will no longer use the testing site could be because it’s no longer useable.

Trump has given up many bargaining chips weeks ahead of his meeting with the North Korean dictator. And what’s worse is he doesn’t even realize it.

Pity the poor WLB.  Always stepping on his own dick.

[Crossless2.0]

Trump and his supporters are fools if they see this as some sort of win (I know, I know).

Kim already has what he wants: a nuclear deterrent, which he will never willingly relinquish. Now he needs cash and goods (to keep his lieutenants happy and to preserve his rule) and the legitimacy that would come from a one-on-one with the President of the United States.

Unless restricted by more sensible people in the government,Trump will give Kim much of what he wants and walk away convinced that it's all evidence of his superior understanding of how to deal with murderous dictators. Of course, his supporters will clap and yelp like trained seals.

The bottom line is that many of these results -- should anything come of a meeting -- will happen only because China will have green-lighted them in advance. They are firmly in the driver's seat, here, and nothing of any significance will happen unless it serves their interests.

[Minimalist]

I've seen this movie before.

[Anomalocaris]

Kim would never got a state of the art nuclear weapon. He will never get a state of the art ballistic missile.  Both of those are moving targets.  His piss poor country with very little access to elite stalls of the the global technology fair simply can’t ever get close.

But what he needs is the fear and doubt in American minds that just a few of his missiles might survive and then get through.

For that what he has is sufficient and if he stops testing now they will remain sufficient for a long time.   He doesn’t need to keep refining his weapons with more tests for a long time to come.

So for the US to celebrate this North Korean “concession” is to celebrate the closing of the barn door after all the horses have bolted.

What is more, trump will gloat over this concession, and extract nothing more form Kim. Kim mean while, will be able to resume testing anytime he wants as a political tool to rachet up international temperature as it suits him.

What trump will “gain” is precisely the same thing as what the US “gained” in each of the past round of negotiations. North Korea will do whatever it takes to reach its next goal. Once they attained their gain, they will offer to stop doing what they no longer need to do as concession. They will then wait a while, take back their concession as tool to distract the world and rachet up the temperature, and then use period of elevated tension to pursue yet a further goal.

[Minimalist]

But what he needs is the fear and doubt in American minds that just a few of his missiles might survive and then get through.

Given our track record with intercepting ballistic missiles I'd say that's a fair bet.