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Atheist Forums › Science › Mathematics v
Mafia Game Win%

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Mafia Game Win%
henryp Offline
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#1
Mafia Game Win%
May 15, 2018 at 10:48 am
So here's the rules of the game.

There are five Towns people and 4 Mafia Members

A random person is killed until one of the following conditions is met:

1) All the mafia is dead, which is a town win.
2) All the town is dead, in which mafia wins.
3) If there are ever 2 more mafia than town alive, mafia wins.

What are the odds of Town winning?
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#2
RE: Mafia Game Win%
May 15, 2018 at 11:01 am
College Statistics class was boring. Didn't learn a thing that stuck with me.
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pocaracas Offline
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#3
RE: Mafia Game Win%
May 15, 2018 at 11:05 am
I suggest Monte-Carlo...
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Tiberius Offline
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#4
RE: Mafia Game Win%
May 15, 2018 at 11:16 am
I wrote a very quick and dirty python script to play 100,000 games and I got a town win % of 49.346%
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henryp Offline
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#5
RE: Mafia Game Win%
May 15, 2018 at 11:20 am (This post was last modified: May 15, 2018 at 11:21 am by henryp.)
(May 15, 2018 at 11:16 am)Tiberius Wrote: I wrote a very quick and dirty python script to play 100,000 games and I got a town win % of 49.346%

Cheater!
(May 15, 2018 at 11:01 am)Kit Wrote: College Statistics class was boring.  Didn't learn a thing that stuck with me.

Statistics are boring.  Combinatorics are fun if you remember how to do them, which I don't.
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henryp Offline
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#6
RE: Mafia Game Win%
May 15, 2018 at 12:39 pm
I got 49ish using the cheating non-mathy strategy as well. Definitely the perfect setup for that game. Nicely done on that front Tibs.
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LastPoet Offline
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#7
RE: Mafia Game Win%
May 15, 2018 at 1:52 pm
(May 15, 2018 at 11:16 am)Tiberius Wrote: I wrote a very quick and dirty python script to play 100,000 games and I got a town win % of 49.346%

Yeah, but humans act different from a simulation. If you got that its good. The remainder is players trying to meet their wincon. Yep, last game I was surely drunk Big Grin
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Tiberius Offline
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#8
RE: Mafia Game Win%
May 15, 2018 at 1:56 pm
(May 15, 2018 at 1:52 pm)LastPoet Wrote:
(May 15, 2018 at 11:16 am)Tiberius Wrote: I wrote a very quick and dirty python script to play 100,000 games and I got a town win % of 49.346%

Yeah, but humans act different from a simulation. If you got that its good. The remainder is players trying to meet their wincon. Yep, last game I was surely drunk Big Grin

He said a random person is killed. Also the scenario doesn't have any kind of Mafia night kill either.
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Tiberius Offline
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#9
RE: Mafia Game Win%
May 15, 2018 at 2:07 pm
I guess I didn't realize that this was effectively the most recent game of Popcorn Mafia. Nice that the numbers at least work out.
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LastPoet Offline
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#10
RE: Mafia Game Win%
May 15, 2018 at 2:14 pm
(May 15, 2018 at 1:56 pm)Tiberius Wrote:
(May 15, 2018 at 1:52 pm)LastPoet Wrote: Yeah, but humans act different from a simulation. If you got that its good. The remainder is players trying to meet their wincon. Yep, last game I was surely drunk Big Grin

He said a random person is killed. Also the scenario doesn't have any kind of Mafia night kill either.

We would need to play that single scenario a few more times to gather data. It would still be subjective to any person mood playing it at any given time, including drunkness ( I was wifoming between Henry and poca $%%&$ last game). There is also information that might be missed or unused. What I am trying to say is that you can't predict how a game will end in this townBig Grin
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Atheist Forums › Science › Mathematics v
Mafia Game Win%

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