I did a little estimated calculation.

[Brian37]

Now mind you this is rough, and admittedly I got it watching TheReidOut show on MSNBC hosted by AM Joy.  

It should not be taken as gospel, but it does give me some pause.

She put up the number as an estimated 135,000,000 were registered voters in 2016. By her numbers an estimated 69,000,000 have voted either by mail in, drop off or early so far. That leaves 66,000,000 million registered voters still have yet to vote. Now we all know tons of people don't vote at all.

That means of the 39,000,000 left over still have to be a majority democrat if they vote at all.

Point is we have to hope that there still are more democrats that do vote even now up until the polls close. Especially in the swing states. Republicans voters have always been good at turnout.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

I’m missing something - WHY do the 39 million who haven’t voted yet have be majority democrat?

Boru

[Brian37]

I’m missing something - WHY do the 39 million who haven’t voted yet have be majority democrat?

Boru

Total numbers. We cant assume all the ballot voters and early voters in swing states who have already voted are a majority democrat. Trump surely has a far more narrow path in swing states, but it is still there. 

Biden is going to win the popular vote nationally, by bigger margins that Hillary, but we all know that the swing states are ultimately the only thing that matters.

Historically Republicans have had greater turnout on election day.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

I’m missing something - WHY do the 39 million who haven’t voted yet have be majority democrat?

Boru

Total numbers. We cant assume all the ballot voters and early voters in swing states who have already voted are a majority democrat. Trump surely has a far more narrow path in swing states, but it is still there. 

Biden is going to win the popular vote nationally, by bigger margins that Hillary, but we all know that the swing states are ultimately the only thing that matters.

Historically Republicans have had greater turnout on election day.

But why are the people who haven’t yet voted mostly democrats?  There doesn’t seem to be any way to know that.

Boru

[Brian37]

Total numbers. We cant assume all the ballot voters and early voters in swing states who have already voted are a majority democrat. Trump surely has a far more narrow path in swing states, but it is still there. 

Biden is going to win the popular vote nationally, by bigger margins that Hillary, but we all know that the swing states are ultimately the only thing that matters.

Historically Republicans have had greater turnout on election day.

But why are the people who haven’t yet voted mostly democrats?  There doesn’t seem to be any way to know that.

Boru

Where did I claim those who haven't voted yet are a majority Democrat? I didn't. I said I hope they will be.

And that is what gives me pause knowing that historically Republicans are better at turnout election day.

I can only hope Trump lost enough elderly and suburban women which he has managed to lose a lot this time.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

But why are the people who haven’t yet voted mostly democrats?  There doesn’t seem to be any way to know that.

Boru

Where did I claim those who haven't voted yet are a majority Democrat? I didn't. I said I hope they will be.

And that is what gives me pause knowing that historically Republicans are better at turnout election day.

I can only hope Trump lost enough elderly and suburban women which he has managed to lose a lot this time.

You claimed it here:

That means of the 39,000,000 left over still have to be a majority democrat if they vote at all.

Boru

[Angrboda]

Based on my back of the envelope calculation, I understand what Brian is babbling about approximately 5% of the time.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

Based on my back of the envelope calculation, I understand what Brian is babbling about approximately 5% of the time.

Show off.

Boru

[Brian37]

Where did I claim those who haven't voted yet are a majority Democrat? I didn't. I said I hope they will be.

And that is what gives me pause knowing that historically Republicans are better at turnout election day.

I can only hope Trump lost enough elderly and suburban women which he has managed to lose a lot this time.

You claimed it here:

That means of the 39,000,000 left over still have to be a majority democrat if they vote at all.

Boru

Yes I did, you took that out of context. "Have to be" as in "must be to win" not "  "are" or "will be". I wasn't making a prediction. Go back to that post and read the last line in that post where I say, "we have to hope" as in, "it will turn out that more democrats vote than republicans", and isn't that the goal?

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

You claimed it here:


Boru

Yes I did, you took that out of context. "Have to be" as in "must be to win" not "  "are" or "will be". I wasn't making a prediction. Go back to that post and read the last line in that post where I say, "We have to hope" as in, "it will turn out that more democrats vote than republicans", and isn't that the goal?

I give up.

Boru