Posts: 28333
Threads: 524
Joined: June 16, 2015
Reputation:
90
RE: What's the probability that 3 out of 23 people will share the same birthday?
January 21, 2022 at 3:03 pm
(This post was last modified: January 21, 2022 at 3:04 pm by brewer.)
(January 21, 2022 at 11:33 am)FlatAssembler Wrote: (January 21, 2022 at 8:49 am)brewer Wrote: I don't share my birthday with anybody, the cake is all mine damnit.
This is a serious question, and I do not expect joke answers.
I'm not sure that is a valid expectation. Can you show me the math?
Being told you're delusional does not necessarily mean you're mental.
Posts: 30974
Threads: 204
Joined: July 19, 2011
Reputation:
141
RE: What's the probability that 3 out of 23 people will share the same birthday?
January 21, 2022 at 9:39 pm
It's 50/50. Either it happens or it doesn't.
/s
Posts: 2020
Threads: 133
Joined: July 26, 2017
Reputation:
5
RE: What's the probability that 3 out of 23 people will share the same birthday?
January 22, 2022 at 6:43 am
(January 21, 2022 at 3:03 pm)brewer Wrote: (January 21, 2022 at 11:33 am)FlatAssembler Wrote: This is a serious question, and I do not expect joke answers.
I'm not sure that is a valid expectation. Can you show me the math?
Here is a program doing numerical calculations, which I do not see why they would not count as math: https://flatassembler.github.io/birthday_paradox
Posts: 46176
Threads: 539
Joined: July 24, 2013
Reputation:
109
RE: What's the probability that 3 out of 23 people will share the same birthday?
January 22, 2022 at 7:02 am
(January 22, 2022 at 6:43 am)FlatAssembler Wrote: (January 21, 2022 at 3:03 pm)brewer Wrote: I'm not sure that is a valid expectation. Can you show me the math?
Here is a program doing numerical calculations, which I do not see why they would not count as math: https://flatassembler.github.io/birthday_paradox
Your programme is flawed. If I enter '100' in the collisions field, the probability computes at 0%. This means that in a group of 23 people, there is no chance that they all share the same birthday. While such a coincidence is statistically unlikely, the probability is non-zero.
Boru
‘I can’t be having with this.’ - Esmeralda Weatherwax
Posts: 28333
Threads: 524
Joined: June 16, 2015
Reputation:
90
RE: What's the probability that 3 out of 23 people will share the same birthday?
January 22, 2022 at 8:08 am
(January 22, 2022 at 6:43 am)FlatAssembler Wrote: (January 21, 2022 at 3:03 pm)brewer Wrote: I'm not sure that is a valid expectation. Can you show me the math?
Here is a program doing numerical calculations, which I do not see why they would not count as math: https://flatassembler.github.io/birthday_paradox
You're back on the birthday thing. I want to see the math for the odds of a funny post showing up in a serious thread.
![[Image: giphy.gif]](https://media4.giphy.com/media/kPIswn0RfPTGxOvDj5/giphy.gif)
Being told you're delusional does not necessarily mean you're mental.
Posts: 16489
Threads: 127
Joined: July 10, 2013
Reputation:
65
RE: What's the probability that 3 out of 23 people will share the same birthday?
January 22, 2022 at 1:35 pm
I had a classmate who shared the same birthday and birthyear as mine. Out of 2 people that's a 100% chance...kind of skews the odds doesn't it?
Posts: 46176
Threads: 539
Joined: July 24, 2013
Reputation:
109
RE: What's the probability that 3 out of 23 people will share the same birthday?
January 22, 2022 at 2:11 pm
(January 22, 2022 at 1:35 pm)arewethereyet Wrote: I had a classmate who shared the same birthday and birthyear as mine. Out of 2 people that's a 100% chance...kind of skews the odds doesn't it?
I once escorted a former girlfriend to a Leap Day Party. Out of the 120 (or so) principal invitees, 100% percent had the same birthday - 29 February.
Boru
‘I can’t be having with this.’ - Esmeralda Weatherwax
Posts: 16489
Threads: 127
Joined: July 10, 2013
Reputation:
65
RE: What's the probability that 3 out of 23 people will share the same birthday?
January 22, 2022 at 2:21 pm
(January 22, 2022 at 2:11 pm)BrianSoddingBoru4 Wrote: (January 22, 2022 at 1:35 pm)arewethereyet Wrote: I had a classmate who shared the same birthday and birthyear as mine. Out of 2 people that's a 100% chance...kind of skews the odds doesn't it?
I once escorted a former girlfriend to a Leap Day Party. Out of the 120 (or so) principal invitees, 100% percent had the same birthday - 29 February.
Boru
That's my wedding anniversary. In 2024 we will have had 8 anniversaries...yet it feels like 30 already. 
Posts: 2020
Threads: 133
Joined: July 26, 2017
Reputation:
5
RE: What's the probability that 3 out of 23 people will share the same birthday?
January 24, 2022 at 2:06 am
(January 22, 2022 at 7:02 am)BrianSoddingBoru4 Wrote: (January 22, 2022 at 6:43 am)FlatAssembler Wrote: Here is a program doing numerical calculations, which I do not see why they would not count as math: https://flatassembler.github.io/birthday_paradox
Your programme is flawed. If I enter '100' in the collisions field, the probability computes at 0%. This means that in a group of 23 people, there is no chance that they all share the same birthday. While such a coincidence is statistically unlikely, the probability is non-zero.
Boru So, where do you think the error lies? https://flatassembler.github.io/birthday_paradox.aec
Posts: 2872
Threads: 8
Joined: October 4, 2017
Reputation:
22
RE: What's the probability that 3 out of 23 people will share the same birthday?
January 24, 2022 at 4:26 am
(January 24, 2022 at 2:06 am)FlatAssembler Wrote: (January 22, 2022 at 7:02 am)BrianSoddingBoru4 Wrote: Your programme is flawed. If I enter '100' in the collisions field, the probability computes at 0%. This means that in a group of 23 people, there is no chance that they all share the same birthday. While such a coincidence is statistically unlikely, the probability is non-zero.
Boru So, where do you think the error lies? https://flatassembler.github.io/birthday_paradox.aec
The error is that you do not understand any of it.
Is that clear enough?
|
![[Image: MmQV79M.png]](https://i.imgur.com/MmQV79M.png)
