Probability and Evidence.

[Edwardo Piet]

I have a question for the members of this forum:

All probability is based on evidence....but is there any evidence that cannot be supported by probability?

I can't think of any atm...but I'm not entirely sure.

[Tiberius]

No, because probability covers both ends of the spectrum. Something can be very probable or very improbable. There is no evidence to suggest that in the next 30 seconds a giant pink rabbit will take over the world, and such an event is highly improbable because it would involve a load of other improbable things happening. Improbability is based on the lack of evidence.

Not sure if that answered your question or not, but it was a very thought provoking one

[Edwardo Piet]

No, because probability covers both ends of the spectrum. Something can be very probable or very improbable. There is no evidence to suggest that in the next 30 seconds a giant pink rabbit will take over the world, and such an event is highly improbable because it would involve a load of other improbable things happening. Improbability is based on the lack of evidence.

Not sure if that answered your question or not, but it was a very thought provoking one

If I understand you correctly...do you mean: There is no evidence that cannot be supported by probability BUT...not all probability is based on evidence some probability (or improbability) is based on the lack of evidence...

When I say evidence I include evidence AND the lack of evidence....does that make any sense? I'm not sure....

I think lack of evidence is a form of evidence. Just as improbability is a form of probability. 90% improbable is the same as 10% probable. Am I right? or have I messed up? I'm just fishing for evidence (OR the LACK of evidence).

I might think something is evidence and later discover it lacks evidence...and that lack of evidence is evident that it is not a form of evidence...which in a way IS a form of evidence.

Am I just being stupid?

I'd say 'fishing for the LACK of evidence' is just another way of saying 'TRYING to disprove your own beliefs'...which as you know scientists do do...self-doubt...etc.

[Tiberius]

My brain hurts. What was the question again?

[Edwardo Piet]

My brain hurts. What was the question again?

Lol...: All probability is based on evidence....but is there any evidence that cannot be supported by probability?

[Kyuuketsuki]

If I understand you correctly I would say no because nothing in science is held to be absolute therefore even the most accepted of scientific explanations are simply held with extremely high probability.

Er ... I think that makes sense

Kyu

[Edwardo Piet]

Ah yes of course; because nothing can be proved or disproved evidence has to be based on probability...

However does that mean it is PROVEN that evidence can ONLY be based on probability meaning probability is proven? That there's no probability for the existence of the way we understand probability? Is this a paradox? Or is probability simply self-proven? Gospel?

I'm confused lol, nothing is proven, it's all about probability, except probability, that's proven?

Or is there merely a 99.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999% reccuring probability that probability exists...

Basically I'm saying If nothing is proven everything needs probability...do you have to put a probability on the existence of probability?

Atm, this is confusing me, lol.

[Kyuuketsuki]

I'm confused lol, nothing is proven, it's all about probability, except probability, that's proven?

Well you've certainly confused the hell outta me

I'd explain in more detail but I get the impression you understood what I said but are just thinking about it from a different kinda angle.

Kyu

[Edwardo Piet]

I'm confused lol, nothing is proven, it's all about probability, except probability, that's proven?

Well you've certainly confused the hell outta me

I'd explain in more detail but I get the impression you understood what I said but are just thinking about it from a different kinda angle.

Kyu

Yeah...I'm basically saying either probability is 100% proved truth...or you have to put a probability on the existence of probability!

[josef rosenkranz]

I'm confused lol, nothing is proven, it's all about probability, except probability, that's proven?

Well you've certainly confused the hell outta me

I'd explain in more detail but I get the impression you understood what I said but are just thinking about it from a different kinda angle.

Kyu

Yeah...I'm basically saying either probability is 100% proved truth...or you have to put a probability on the existence of probability!

Read the theory of Karl Popper ,a modern and much appreciated philosopher (qouted also by RD) he threats about the problems of evidence and probability.
If you'll understand him you will be able to write also about philosophy ,I came out of reading him more dumb then I was before