RE: History Repeats Itself
August 14, 2015 at 10:23 am
(This post was last modified: August 14, 2015 at 10:25 am by Longhorn.)
(August 14, 2015 at 10:18 am)lkingpinl Wrote:(August 14, 2015 at 9:45 am)Neimenovic Wrote: Also, regarding your objections to mathematical improbability......Probability only means anything when it is used to predict an event. After the event has happened, the probability of it is equal to 1.
That, and if you rewind anything far enough back you'll find it is statistically improbable.
That logic is a post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy. My point was the probability of a single beneficial mutation is small in itself but then further compounding that with needing multiple at the same time, and that number exceeds what mathematicians would consider "impossible".
No, you misunderstand what I'm saying.
Before you roll the dice, the probability of rolling a 6 is 1 to 6. But after you've rolled a 6, the probability that you've rolled a 6 is 100%. That is just how probability works.
Again, more of an anecdote than anything else.
