(February 21, 2016 at 2:41 pm)Wyrd of Gawd Wrote:(February 21, 2016 at 11:23 am)Minimalist Wrote: Trump's lunatic ramblings will get the dems out to vote but, as I have said so many times, it is the independents who decide elections in the US. He's a batshit crazy motherfucker.The independents don't decide jackshit when it comes to the Presidential election. The only voters that count are the Dems in the Blue States. Everyone else is irrelevant. Based on the turnout so far Hillary will get the nomination but she will be lucky if she gets 100 electoral votes.
I'd suggest you start reading up about the difference between primaries and general elections.
I'd also suggest that you think about the effect a Trump nomination would have on Democrat turnout, and independent leanings.
I think your analysis is simplistic to the point of uselessness, forgetting as you to have done that neither Trump nor Cruz can pull independents in great numbers, neither can pull women outside of their own party, and that neither will be able to backtrack to a more centrist position without getting hammered for being big-mouthed hypocrites by whichever candidate they face -- but at the same time, neither will be able to pull women or minorities with their stated positions.
Here are the numbers for Clinton v Trump. Here are the numbers for Sanders v Trump.
Trump has a high floor and a low ceiling amongst the general electorate. He's a polarizing figure who cannot later try to mend fences without looking weak. He'a painted himself into a corner.
