vote Donald trump!?

[AFTT47]

He's a hero in that regard; I'll give you that.


I'm not scared of him at all. I'm salivating at the thought of him being the GOP nominee. Hilary doesn't need to reach the fringe lunatics who are supporting Trump in the Republican primaries. They are a small minority in the general electorate. She only needs to reach the sane majority. And Trump continues to make that easy.

Hillary needs to win the Dem voters in the Blue States.  She doesn't need to worry about anyone (Dem or Repub) in the Red States.  They are irrelevant in the general election.  Right now it's doubtful if she will get the needed Dem votes in the Blue States because those people don't really like her.

You continue to pretend that swing states do not exist. Right off the top, there are four states which haven't been reliably red or blue for decades: Florida, Ohio, Nevada and New Mexico, in order of importance. They represent > 21% of the the 270 EV needed to win. Florida is > 10% by itself. Then there are states like Utah (admittedly not very consequential) which have been solidly red for a long time but are so disgusted with Trump, are in play for Hillary. I personally wonder about Texas with its huge Hispanic population as well as my current home of Arizona.

Why don't you show us state by state models, justifying why Trump or Hillary will win in each? Until you do, I think your general model is simplistic and based more on what you want to happen than what is likely to happen.