RE: Japanese Radiation
April 9, 2011 at 6:25 pm
(This post was last modified: April 9, 2011 at 6:38 pm by LEDO.)
The actual risk is in potential future cancer deaths. This is done my a BIER model of non-threshold dose. The assumption of this model is that a cancer can be caused by any level of radiation dose, which has not been proven or disproven. The actual number used is 10,000 person-Rems will equate to one cancer death, or 100 Sieverts is one person death for the rest of the world outside of the US. (The world uses the international Sievert unit whereas the US uses Rem. 100 Rem= 1 Sievert).
Because of this, the non-nuclear worker is limited in the US to less than 100 millirem (.1Rem) a year while guys like me can get 5 Rem/year. If say 300 million people (US population) recived 1 mrem (1% of the general population allowed dose) that would result in a theoretical increase of 30 cancer deaths in the entire US, something that would be impossible to measure. This is less than what we are seeing outside of Japan, so the world impact from radiation dose will not be detected by any means.
In Japan, that is a different story. People have been moved from areas, but some stayed behind. This is a post I made (edited) on March 23 at another web site:
The I-131 most likely did not come from Unit 4 SFP. Unit 4 has been de-fueled since November of last year. Unit 4 has the most spent bundles in it at 1300 plus 200 new fuel bundles. (US plants typically have more.)
There are holes in the roofs of units 1,2 and 4. They are in a constant release state. A radioactive plume is being constantly created and released every time they spray water on the darn thing. The first part of this reached California in the form of Xe-133 from Unit 1 on March 16. It has a 2 day half-life and this is just the tip of the iceberg of what is on its way. Radioactivity WILL reach us here in Augusta (low levels but measurable).
20 miles away from the plant, the plume caused radiation levels as high as 17 mrem/hr. Radiation areas are posted at 5 mrem/hr and the public is restricted from those areas. Their limit is 100 mrem/year. In 6 hours they will exceed their annual allowable dose for the public. The limit for a fetus during pregnacy for a radiation worker is 500 mrem. This will be exceeded in 24 hours.
40 miles away from the plant the does levels from contamination and the plume is just under 1 mrem/hr (50-100 times normal background). Even at this low level, the public should not be in more than 4 days. The contamination levels are 150,000 dpm beta-gamma on a gross wipe, or 15,000 dpm/100 cm2 beta-gamma. Nuclear plants across the nation post contamination areas (places where one must wear those funny clothing) anywhere from 100 to 1,000 dpm/100cm2. They have what we would call a contamination area, 40 miles from the plant.
The radioactivity is just now getting into the food chain. It will continue to get into the food chain until the roofs are covered, which may be months.
No one has really mentioned tritium or Sr-90 which was a big problem at TMI. It is a pain to measure.
At one point they had 40 REM/hr between units 3/4 with 1,200 mrem/hr at the fence line. In our country this is a locked high radiation area. Access is severly restricted. Those levels have gone down. The turn around point for those heroes in 1 Rem/hr. At that level they run out of the plant and let the thing melt down. One of the problems is that dose rates from one unit is hampering efforts in others. It was not wise to put all your nuke plants in one location. Think maybe the no-nukes might have a legitamate challenge to putting more nukes at Vogtle? This could have a local impact. (That turn around limit was raised to 10Rem.yr when they couldn't do they job at 1 Rem/hr).
Right now I would evacuate everyone north of Tokyo, except in Japan with 138 million people and being the size of Montana, this is not practicable, so they have to suck it up.
Oh yes, and I seriously doubt if those silly surgeon masks they wear block out any airborne radioactivity.
Part II.
This is something I else I posted elsewhere:
One of the things not mentioned by TEPCO or the media (and I am the guy who mentioned the SFP problem in this thread before it happened) is Sr-90. Sr-90 is a bone seeker and its levels are far more restrictive than Cs-137. It is produced in about equal amounts as is Cs-137.
It is more difficult to detect and the instruments (GeLi) used to identify I-131 and Cs-137 will not detect Sr-90/Y-90 because of it low yield gamma activity, which is generally masked. You need to run a beta-spec on the sample or better yet, perform a Sr separation and then analyze it (something I did at TMI).
There is also tritium present which I am sure is exceeding all kinds of limits too. It requires that the sample be filtered to eliminate other radioisotopes and then counted in a special liquid scintillation. Most likely they are not doing this either.
I did on one of their isotopic reports Y-91. Y-91 is the daughter product of Sr-91 which has a shorter half life than Sr-90. This should be causing someone to at least think in those terms. It looks like Japan is going to re-invent the nuclear accident wheel instead of learning from other's mistakes.
Part 3
The ocean has a large dilution. The problem will be for the long lived isotopes of Cs-137 and Sr-90 which have about a 30 year half life. Scientist typically figure 5-7 half lives until most of the stuff is gone, unless you start out with a lot, in which case it can be more. These elements will be absorbed by ocean life and concentrated, then work their way up the food chain like anything else. Sr-90 which decays to Y-90 emits a very high energy beta which is very damaging. It is more limiting or dangerous than Cs-137. For instance where I work we can release an item as "clean" if it has 1,000 dpm/ 100 cm2 Cs-137, but Sr-90 limits are 200 dpm. Sr-90 goes everywhere calcium goes to. So, if you released calcium into the ocean, what would absorb it? Coral? Shell? Bones? Cs-137 likewise gets absorb, but is slightly different chemically. Certain species absorb these items more than others. For instance a Beechwood or gum tree will suck up Cs-137 but a pine will not. I am certain the ocean has certain plants and critters that will absorb these specific isotopes more than others. What they are, I don't know, and it may be no one really knows because there may be no real research done in this area. I am skeptical of those nuclear spokepersons with no scientific background telling us there is no danger when in fact we just don't know.
Because of this, the non-nuclear worker is limited in the US to less than 100 millirem (.1Rem) a year while guys like me can get 5 Rem/year. If say 300 million people (US population) recived 1 mrem (1% of the general population allowed dose) that would result in a theoretical increase of 30 cancer deaths in the entire US, something that would be impossible to measure. This is less than what we are seeing outside of Japan, so the world impact from radiation dose will not be detected by any means.
In Japan, that is a different story. People have been moved from areas, but some stayed behind. This is a post I made (edited) on March 23 at another web site:
The I-131 most likely did not come from Unit 4 SFP. Unit 4 has been de-fueled since November of last year. Unit 4 has the most spent bundles in it at 1300 plus 200 new fuel bundles. (US plants typically have more.)
There are holes in the roofs of units 1,2 and 4. They are in a constant release state. A radioactive plume is being constantly created and released every time they spray water on the darn thing. The first part of this reached California in the form of Xe-133 from Unit 1 on March 16. It has a 2 day half-life and this is just the tip of the iceberg of what is on its way. Radioactivity WILL reach us here in Augusta (low levels but measurable).
20 miles away from the plant, the plume caused radiation levels as high as 17 mrem/hr. Radiation areas are posted at 5 mrem/hr and the public is restricted from those areas. Their limit is 100 mrem/year. In 6 hours they will exceed their annual allowable dose for the public. The limit for a fetus during pregnacy for a radiation worker is 500 mrem. This will be exceeded in 24 hours.
40 miles away from the plant the does levels from contamination and the plume is just under 1 mrem/hr (50-100 times normal background). Even at this low level, the public should not be in more than 4 days. The contamination levels are 150,000 dpm beta-gamma on a gross wipe, or 15,000 dpm/100 cm2 beta-gamma. Nuclear plants across the nation post contamination areas (places where one must wear those funny clothing) anywhere from 100 to 1,000 dpm/100cm2. They have what we would call a contamination area, 40 miles from the plant.
The radioactivity is just now getting into the food chain. It will continue to get into the food chain until the roofs are covered, which may be months.
No one has really mentioned tritium or Sr-90 which was a big problem at TMI. It is a pain to measure.
At one point they had 40 REM/hr between units 3/4 with 1,200 mrem/hr at the fence line. In our country this is a locked high radiation area. Access is severly restricted. Those levels have gone down. The turn around point for those heroes in 1 Rem/hr. At that level they run out of the plant and let the thing melt down. One of the problems is that dose rates from one unit is hampering efforts in others. It was not wise to put all your nuke plants in one location. Think maybe the no-nukes might have a legitamate challenge to putting more nukes at Vogtle? This could have a local impact. (That turn around limit was raised to 10Rem.yr when they couldn't do they job at 1 Rem/hr).
Right now I would evacuate everyone north of Tokyo, except in Japan with 138 million people and being the size of Montana, this is not practicable, so they have to suck it up.
Oh yes, and I seriously doubt if those silly surgeon masks they wear block out any airborne radioactivity.
Part II.
This is something I else I posted elsewhere:
One of the things not mentioned by TEPCO or the media (and I am the guy who mentioned the SFP problem in this thread before it happened) is Sr-90. Sr-90 is a bone seeker and its levels are far more restrictive than Cs-137. It is produced in about equal amounts as is Cs-137.
It is more difficult to detect and the instruments (GeLi) used to identify I-131 and Cs-137 will not detect Sr-90/Y-90 because of it low yield gamma activity, which is generally masked. You need to run a beta-spec on the sample or better yet, perform a Sr separation and then analyze it (something I did at TMI).
There is also tritium present which I am sure is exceeding all kinds of limits too. It requires that the sample be filtered to eliminate other radioisotopes and then counted in a special liquid scintillation. Most likely they are not doing this either.
I did on one of their isotopic reports Y-91. Y-91 is the daughter product of Sr-91 which has a shorter half life than Sr-90. This should be causing someone to at least think in those terms. It looks like Japan is going to re-invent the nuclear accident wheel instead of learning from other's mistakes.
Part 3
The ocean has a large dilution. The problem will be for the long lived isotopes of Cs-137 and Sr-90 which have about a 30 year half life. Scientist typically figure 5-7 half lives until most of the stuff is gone, unless you start out with a lot, in which case it can be more. These elements will be absorbed by ocean life and concentrated, then work their way up the food chain like anything else. Sr-90 which decays to Y-90 emits a very high energy beta which is very damaging. It is more limiting or dangerous than Cs-137. For instance where I work we can release an item as "clean" if it has 1,000 dpm/ 100 cm2 Cs-137, but Sr-90 limits are 200 dpm. Sr-90 goes everywhere calcium goes to. So, if you released calcium into the ocean, what would absorb it? Coral? Shell? Bones? Cs-137 likewise gets absorb, but is slightly different chemically. Certain species absorb these items more than others. For instance a Beechwood or gum tree will suck up Cs-137 but a pine will not. I am certain the ocean has certain plants and critters that will absorb these specific isotopes more than others. What they are, I don't know, and it may be no one really knows because there may be no real research done in this area. I am skeptical of those nuclear spokepersons with no scientific background telling us there is no danger when in fact we just don't know.
"On Earth as it is in Heaven, the Cosmic Roots of the Bible" available on the Amazon.
