Fundies Will Be Shitting Bricks

[Statler Waldorf]

Actually he didn't have to take all the species aboard, but even if he did it would be more plausible than guessing a 5000 digit pin number on your first try which is the probability of abiogenesis ever happening. It's ok to have blind faith, I just think you have a bit too much of it.

Could you show your calculation demonstrating that the probability of abiogenesis is 1 in 10^5000 please?

Sure! You could do the math for yourself, but Dr. Sarfati already did it for us in his book (By Design) so I will just quote that. He also shows the probability of it occurring even if we spot you guys every particle interaction in the history of time, numbers are still not looking good for the abiogenesis crowd.

One could calculate the probability of obtaining all these proteins in the right sequence. Certainly there is some leeway in many, but not around the active sites. However, in others there is hardly any leeway, e.g. the histones that act as spools around which DNA wraps in chromosomes, ubiquitin which is ubiquitous in organisms apart from bacteria and essential for marking unwanted proteins for destruction,7,8 and calmodulin, the ubiquitous calcium-binding protein which has almost all of its 140–150 amino acids ‘conserved’ (the same in all organisms).

The structure of part of a DNA double helix
Even evolutionary writers implicitly concede that some sequences are essential, but they call them ‘conserved’—i.e. the sequence was so vital that natural selection conserved it by eliminating variants. As the following conservative calculation shows, even making generous assumptions to the evolutionists (e.g. ignoring the chemical problems), the origin of life from non-life still defies probability.

20 amino acids
387 proteins for the simplest possible life
10 conserved amino acids on average
∴ chance is 20^–3870 = 10^–3870.log20 = 10^–5035
This is one chance in one followed by over 5000 zeroes. So it would be harder than guessing a correct 5000-digit PIN on the first go!
Is time really ‘the hero of the plot’? No:

10^80 atoms in the universe
10^12 atomic interactions per second
10^18 seconds in the universe, according to the fallacious big bang theory
∴ only 10^110 interactions possible. This is a huge number, but compared with the tiny chance of obtaining the right sequence, it is absurdly small: only 10^–4925.