RE: Nuclear War must become obsolete OP/ED
March 23, 2018 at 10:09 am
(This post was last modified: March 23, 2018 at 10:25 am by Anomalocaris.)
Nuclear war will never become obsolete unless a new and even more effective weapon technology supersedes it before it could by itself halt the progress of human technology.
Instead it will become ever more likely as the technology to manufacture nuclear weapons, now 75 years old, comes within the reach of more and more nations simply as part of general progress in overall level of technology, and more and more nations will acquire nuclear weapons, making control of nuclear weapon use through effective command and control and international regimes ever more complex and difficult.
Perhaps the most likely future Unclear war would not be a all out exchange of tens of thousands of warheads as per the Cold War scenario. So nuclear war becomes more likely to be survivable. But in place of a single throw of dice, I think nuclear war, while smaller, will likely become more frequent.
The only question is whether, over the long term, humanity will expand its range faster than the rate at which nuclear war can consume the population and infrastructure.
I think it is highly likely there will be nuclear weapon use in anger during our lifetimes. I think it will be a limited exchange. I think rather than showcase the horror of the nuclear weapon, the first nuclear weapon use since Nagasaki will likely instead to show case that not having a nuclear weapon will not make one immune to being nuked, and it is vitally important to have a nuclear arsenal in order to not getting pushed around in a nuclear world. Thus each nuclear war will promote faster and more widespread proliferation of nuclear weapons.
Instead it will become ever more likely as the technology to manufacture nuclear weapons, now 75 years old, comes within the reach of more and more nations simply as part of general progress in overall level of technology, and more and more nations will acquire nuclear weapons, making control of nuclear weapon use through effective command and control and international regimes ever more complex and difficult.
Perhaps the most likely future Unclear war would not be a all out exchange of tens of thousands of warheads as per the Cold War scenario. So nuclear war becomes more likely to be survivable. But in place of a single throw of dice, I think nuclear war, while smaller, will likely become more frequent.
The only question is whether, over the long term, humanity will expand its range faster than the rate at which nuclear war can consume the population and infrastructure.
I think it is highly likely there will be nuclear weapon use in anger during our lifetimes. I think it will be a limited exchange. I think rather than showcase the horror of the nuclear weapon, the first nuclear weapon use since Nagasaki will likely instead to show case that not having a nuclear weapon will not make one immune to being nuked, and it is vitally important to have a nuclear arsenal in order to not getting pushed around in a nuclear world. Thus each nuclear war will promote faster and more widespread proliferation of nuclear weapons.
