RE: Evidence for a god. Do you have any ?
October 10, 2018 at 12:06 pm
(This post was last modified: October 10, 2018 at 1:10 pm by SteveII.)
(October 10, 2018 at 11:39 am)Mister Agenda Wrote: If each premise is 90% likely to be true, with 11 premises, the inductive conclusion is 31.38%. And that's being quite generous with the probability of each premise. Inductive arguments don't work well with many uncertain premises.
You do NOT multiply probabilities together to come up with a net probability in a syllogism. The conclusion's probability is equal to the lowest of the premise probabilities. Think about it--the more premises you have that are likely true would reduce the net probability if you multiplied them together.
EDIT: The conclusion's probability cannot be higher than the lowest of the premise's probabilities that must be true for the conclusion. There are many premises that do not have to be true