(May 10, 2019 at 4:47 pm)Anomalocaris Wrote: Any worthiness for consideration it might seem to possess must take a hefty discount because it had to resort to a fraudulent analogy to acquire that vague appearance of worthiness for consideration.
Anything is possible. Science is not done by assuming everything that might be possible are all equally possible and worth considering. Rather it is done by using evidence to separate the probable from all that is merely possible. Those who pushes the possible as being equal to the probable are either ignorant or hucksters. Those who do so by using apparently crafted fraudulent analogies, like this guy, are more likely hucksters.
I think "huckster" might be a bit too strong. I would see his thought experiment more as something intended to reveal areas of our own ignorance rather than positing probabilities for abiogenesis. In that sense, as inaccurate as his analogy might have been, I don't think it was fraudulent... at least not in its intention.
The guy in the video is Dr. David Kipping, an assistant professor of astronomy at Columbia university. Abiogenesis is a bit removed from his field of expertise. I think his goal in presenting the video was to show "the other side of the argument"... ie. it was a pessimistic exploration of the possibility of extraterrestrial life that intended to produce a counterpoint to all the fervent optimism going around. By itself, perhaps it's a piss poor case. But as a reply to optimistic estimates of extraterrestrial life, maybe it's a worthwhile exploration of the possibility that life on earth may be unique.
