@Rev. Rye
I think what's being done here, Rev. is that you are considering two separate examples and treating them as one.
The "first" race is one that the runner ought to be able to win (presumably because he is more fit than his rivals). But then when it's time to run the race-- SURPRISE!-- now, you're running against Usain Bolt. There is no way that the runner can win now. But the race against Usain Bolt is actually a "second" example.
We can solve this problem by considering if Usain Bolt is going to be in the race BEFORE we determine if our runner ought to be able to win the race.
I think what's being done here, Rev. is that you are considering two separate examples and treating them as one.
The "first" race is one that the runner ought to be able to win (presumably because he is more fit than his rivals). But then when it's time to run the race-- SURPRISE!-- now, you're running against Usain Bolt. There is no way that the runner can win now. But the race against Usain Bolt is actually a "second" example.
We can solve this problem by considering if Usain Bolt is going to be in the race BEFORE we determine if our runner ought to be able to win the race.