President Biden

[Anomalocaris]

My immediate single biggest worry for Biden is getting this virus under control.
I just can't see Usians being forced into lockdown against their wishes. Same with Europe.
Melbournians were tortured with their restrictions but it has paid off. Australia is now basically clean.

I think there'll be almost a civil war next year IF there is no vaccine made available for a quick fix.

The problem is evidence suggest immunity to COVID-19 is not permanent, and previously infected can be re-infected in a few months.   This suggest vaccine will only be a partial solution.   In any case even the partial solution will take months for enough doses of vaccine to be manufactured to dilute the pool of potential victims to diminish daily infection rate. 

Trump loyalists will be unlikely to play along with a workable plan to control the vaccine.   They will actively resist and sabotage any control efforts prior to the vaccine in order to make Biden fail.    If vaccine proves effective in any degree, they will claim credit for trump and then also claim the vaccine would have been a complete solution but for Democrats kicking trump out of the office. 

On the last point, I caution against being too complacent about trump being kicked out of the office.    I give 30% chance trump loyalist republicans will yet pull off a coup.    Having full confidence in the efficacy of our system of succession and order transition of power is to bury one’s head in the sand.  After trump legitimate   transition of power will have to be fought for, and will be increasingly disorderly.   When fighting is involved most of the democrats are nearly as serious and determined as any shade of republicans.

I have zero doubt that in the next 50 years, a democrat will be able to take the White House fewer times the the democrats will actually have won the presidential election.     The democrats will prove able to install far fewer percentage Supreme Court vacancies than the vacancies that open up during a democratic president’s term.