(August 13, 2021 at 9:47 am)vulcanlogician Wrote:(August 13, 2021 at 9:23 am)Mister Agenda Wrote: Not to mention the number of absurd threats is potentially infinite and I couldn't worry about all of them if I tried.
Have you ever heard about Pascal's Mugging? It's a thought experiment that shows the faulty thinking involved in Pascal's Wager-ish type stuff. For me, it was the final nail in the coffin for Pascal's Wager.
I think I'd heard of it, but a refresher was needed.
Quote:In one description, Blaise Pascal is accosted by a mugger who has forgotten his weapon. However, the mugger proposes a deal: the philosopher gives him his wallet, and in exchange the mugger will return twice the amount of money tomorrow. Pascal declines, pointing out that it is unlikely the deal will be honoured. The mugger then continues naming higher rewards, pointing out that even if it is just one chance in 1000 that he will be honourable, it would make sense for Pascal to make a deal for a 2000 times return. Pascal responds that the probability for that high return is even lower than one in 1000. The mugger argues back that for any low probability of being able to pay back a large amount of money (or pure utility) there exists a finite amount that makes it rational to take the bet – and given human fallibility and philosophical scepticism a rational person must admit there is at least some non-zero chance that such a deal would be possible. In one example, the mugger succeeds by promising Pascal 1,000 quadrillion happy days of life. Convinced by the argument, Pascal gives the mugger the wallet.
Wikipedia || Pascal's mugging
I'll have to take some time to read the article, as there appears to be more than meets the eye.
![[Image: extraordinarywoo-sig.jpg]](https://i.postimg.cc/zf86M5L7/extraordinarywoo-sig.jpg)