What's the probability that 3 out of 23 people will share the same birthday?
January 21, 2022 at 2:06 am
The probability that 2 out of 23 people will share the same birthday is slightly higher than 50%, and that is the famous Birthday Paradox. However, what is the probability that 3 out of 23 people will? I have, like I have written in this article about something distantly related to that, estimated numerically using Monte Carlo method that it is around 1.26%, and that the probability that 4 out of 23 people will share the same birthday is around 0.018%. However, I am interested whether there is a general formula for that.
