RE: Probability and Evidence.
October 5, 2008 at 8:42 pm
(This post was last modified: October 5, 2008 at 8:44 pm by Edwardo Piet.)
(October 5, 2008 at 8:27 pm)Tiberius Wrote: No, because probability covers both ends of the spectrum. Something can be very probable or very improbable. There is no evidence to suggest that in the next 30 seconds a giant pink rabbit will take over the world, and such an event is highly improbable because it would involve a load of other improbable things happening. Improbability is based on the lack of evidence.
Not sure if that answered your question or not, but it was a very thought provoking one
If I understand you correctly...do you mean: There is no evidence that cannot be supported by probability BUT...not all probability is based on evidence some probability (or improbability) is based on the lack of evidence...
When I say evidence I include evidence AND the lack of evidence....does that make any sense? I'm not sure....
I think lack of evidence is a form of evidence. Just as improbability is a form of probability. 90% improbable is the same as 10% probable. Am I right? or have I messed up? I'm just fishing for evidence (OR the LACK of evidence).
I might think something is evidence and later discover it lacks evidence...and that lack of evidence is evident that it is not a form of evidence...which in a way IS a form of evidence.
Am I just being stupid?
I'd say 'fishing for the LACK of evidence' is just another way of saying 'TRYING to disprove your own beliefs'...which as you know scientists do do...self-doubt...etc.
